Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniele Perenzoni · Italy
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.272.65safe0.42–2.340.41–2.130.83–4.47safer0.16–2.600.16–2.370.32–4.98actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.363.879.23safe3.50–7.212.17–5.585.67–12.80safer3.00–7.711.70–6.054.70–13.76actual6.008.0014.00
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5311.1927.73safe12.83–20.247.82–14.5720.65–34.81safer11.80–21.276.89–15.5018.69–36.77actual15.0020.0035.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.756.9817.73safe8.23–13.274.68–9.2812.92–22.55safer7.37–14.133.88–10.0811.25–24.21actual8.0013.0021.00
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.147.33safe2.61–5.781.72–4.554.34–10.33safer2.08–6.321.24–5.043.32–11.35actual3.005.008.00
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.124.3410.46safe3.92–8.332.36–6.326.28–14.65safer3.32–8.921.83–6.865.15–15.78actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.2451.45safe40.93–53.5645.13–57.77safer39.33–55.1643.54–59.37actual36.0064.00
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction396444840safe331–462379–509711–970safer313–479362–526675–1006actual311566877
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction82.1884.29safe77.97–86.4079.78–88.80safer76.66–87.7078.45–90.13actual80.0089.00
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8012.7727.57safe11.95–17.669.82–15.7121.77–33.37safer11.06–18.548.90–16.6319.97–35.18actual12.006.0018.00
Offsides
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.760.952.71safe0.56–2.970.00–2.110.34–5.08safer0.21–3.320.00–2.440.00–5.76actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.133.59safe0.40–2.511.01–3.261.41–5.76safer0.12–2.780.72–3.550.85–6.33actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.205.86safe1.24–4.071.65–4.752.89–8.82safer0.85–4.461.22–5.192.07–9.65actual7.004.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.34 0.16–2.60 | 2.00 | 1.27 0.41–2.13 0.16–2.37 | 1.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.32–4.98 | 3.00 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.21 3.00–7.71 | 6.00 | 3.87 2.17–5.58 1.70–6.05 | 8.00 | 9.23 5.67–12.80 4.70–13.76 | 14.00 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.53 12.83–20.24 11.80–21.27 | 15.00 | 11.19 7.82–14.57 6.89–15.50 | 20.00 | 27.73 20.65–34.81 18.69–36.77 | 35.00 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.75 8.23–13.27 7.37–14.13 | 8.00 | 6.98 4.68–9.28 3.88–10.08 | 13.00 | 17.73 12.92–22.55 11.25–24.21 | 21.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.61–5.78 2.08–6.32 | 3.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.24–5.04 | 5.00 | 7.33 4.34–10.33 3.32–11.35 | 8.00 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.92–8.33 3.32–8.92 | 7.00 | 4.34 2.36–6.32 1.83–6.86 | 5.00 | 10.46 6.28–14.65 5.15–15.78 | 12.00 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 47.24 40.93–53.56 39.33–55.16 | 36.00 | 51.45 45.13–57.77 43.54–59.37 | 64.00 | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 396 331–462 313–479 | 311 | 444 379–509 362–526 | 566 | 840 711–970 675–1006 | 877 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.18 77.97–86.40 76.66–87.70 | 80.00 | 84.29 79.78–88.80 78.45–90.13 | 89.00 | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 14.80 11.95–17.66 11.06–18.54 | 12.00 | 12.77 9.82–15.71 8.90–16.63 | 6.00 | 27.57 21.77–33.37 19.97–35.18 | 18.00 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.56–2.97 0.21–3.32 | 0.00 | 0.95 0.00–2.11 0.00–2.44 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.34–5.08 0.00–5.76 | 1.00 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.51 0.12–2.78 | 4.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.26 0.72–3.55 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.33 | 5.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.24–4.07 0.85–4.46 | 7.00 | 3.20 1.65–4.75 1.22–5.19 | 4.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.82 2.07–9.65 | 11.00 | 33% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.