Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Maurizio Mariani · Italy
Goals
34%
28%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.182.28safe0.14–2.070.32–2.040.46–4.10safer0.00–2.330.07–2.280.00–4.61actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
37%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.894.378.27safe2.04–5.752.67–6.084.70–11.83safer1.54–6.252.20–6.553.74–12.80actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7113.1625.87safe9.01–16.419.79–16.5418.79–32.96safer7.98–17.458.85–17.4716.83–34.92actual5.0012.0017.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.998.0716.07safe5.48–10.515.77–10.3811.25–20.89safer4.61–11.374.98–11.179.59–22.55actual3.007.0010.00
Blocked shots
42%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.486.98safe1.91–5.082.07–4.903.98–9.98safer1.38–5.611.58–5.382.96–11.00actual1.004.005.00
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.739.58safe2.65–7.062.75–6.705.40–13.77safer2.06–7.662.21–7.244.27–14.90actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction46.2154.98safe39.90–52.5348.66–61.30safer38.30–54.1347.06–62.89actual42.0058.00
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction363432796safe298–429368–497666–926safer280–446350–515631–961actual325439764
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction72.9871.61safe68.76–77.1967.10–76.12safer67.46–78.4965.77–77.45actual79.0085.00
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0212.8724.89safe9.16–14.889.92–15.8119.09–30.69safer8.28–15.769.00–16.7317.28–32.50actual15.0012.0027.00
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.843.46safe0.42–2.830.67–3.001.09–5.83safer0.07–3.180.34–3.330.41–6.51actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.144.23safe1.03–3.151.02–3.262.06–6.41safer0.76–3.420.73–3.551.49–6.97actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.415.15safe1.32–4.150.85–3.962.18–8.11safer0.94–4.540.42–4.391.36–8.93actual4.000.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 1.00 | 2.28 0.46–4.10 0.00–4.61 | 3.00 | 34% 28% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.89 2.04–5.75 1.54–6.25 | 2.00 | 4.37 2.67–6.08 2.20–6.55 | 5.00 | 8.27 4.70–11.83 3.74–12.80 | 7.00 | 37% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.71 9.01–16.41 7.98–17.45 | 5.00 | 13.16 9.79–16.54 8.85–17.47 | 12.00 | 25.87 18.79–32.96 16.83–34.92 | 17.00 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.99 5.48–10.51 4.61–11.37 | 3.00 | 8.07 5.77–10.38 4.98–11.17 | 7.00 | 16.07 11.25–20.89 9.59–22.55 | 10.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.91–5.08 1.38–5.61 | 1.00 | 3.48 2.07–4.90 1.58–5.38 | 4.00 | 6.98 3.98–9.98 2.96–11.00 | 5.00 | 42% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.06 2.06–7.66 | 2.00 | 4.73 2.75–6.70 2.21–7.24 | 5.00 | 9.58 5.40–13.77 4.27–14.90 | 7.00 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 46.21 39.90–52.53 38.30–54.13 | 42.00 | 54.98 48.66–61.30 47.06–62.89 | 58.00 | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 363 298–429 280–446 | 325 | 432 368–497 350–515 | 439 | 796 666–926 631–961 | 764 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.98 68.76–77.19 67.46–78.49 | 79.00 | 71.61 67.10–76.12 65.77–77.45 | 85.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 12.02 9.16–14.88 8.28–15.76 | 15.00 | 12.87 9.92–15.81 9.00–16.73 | 12.00 | 24.89 19.09–30.69 17.28–32.50 | 27.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.42–2.83 0.07–3.18 | 3.00 | 1.84 0.67–3.00 0.34–3.33 | 1.00 | 3.46 1.09–5.83 0.41–6.51 | 4.00 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.03–3.15 0.76–3.42 | 3.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 3.00 | 4.23 2.06–6.41 1.49–6.97 | 6.00 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.32–4.15 0.94–4.54 | 4.00 | 2.41 0.85–3.96 0.42–4.39 | 0.00 | 5.15 2.18–8.11 1.36–8.93 | 4.00 | 47% 18% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+