Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Gianluca Manganiello · Italy
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.122.43safe0.35–2.270.26–1.980.61–4.26safer0.09–2.530.02–2.230.11–4.76actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.038.39safe2.50–6.212.33–5.744.83–11.96safer2.00–6.711.86–6.213.86–12.92actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0312.5125.55safe9.33–16.739.14–15.8918.46–32.63safer8.30–17.778.21–16.8216.50–34.59actual26.005.0031.00
Shots in box
63%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction8.716.8515.56safe6.19–11.224.55–9.1510.74–20.38safer5.33–12.093.75–9.959.08–22.04actual17.003.0020.00
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.673.036.70safe2.08–5.251.61–4.443.70–9.70safer1.55–5.791.13–4.932.68–10.72actual7.001.008.00
Corners
47%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.624.318.94safe2.42–6.832.33–6.294.75–13.12safer1.82–7.431.80–6.833.62–14.25actual16.001.0017.00
Possession %
40%
56%
homeawayprediction48.6851.87safe42.36–55.0045.55–58.19safer40.77–56.6043.96–59.79actual65.0035.00
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction440464904safe374–505400–529774–1034safer357–523382–547739–1069actual602344946
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction82.1884.39safe77.97–86.4079.89–88.90safer76.67–87.7078.56–90.23actual91.0082.00
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2613.3424.60safe8.41–14.1210.39–16.2818.80–30.41safer7.52–15.019.48–17.2017.00–32.21actual9.008.0017.00
Offsides
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.803.03safe0.02–2.430.64–2.970.66–5.40safer0.00–2.780.31–3.300.00–6.08actual2.004.006.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.933.68safe0.70–2.810.81–3.051.51–5.86safer0.42–3.080.52–3.340.95–6.42actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.815.66safe1.44–4.271.26–4.362.70–8.63safer1.05–4.660.82–4.801.87–9.45actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.27 0.09–2.53 | 0.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.11–4.76 | 1.00 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.21 2.00–6.71 | 5.00 | 4.03 2.33–5.74 1.86–6.21 | 2.00 | 8.39 4.83–11.96 3.86–12.92 | 7.00 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.03 9.33–16.73 8.30–17.77 | 26.00 | 12.51 9.14–15.89 8.21–16.82 | 5.00 | 25.55 18.46–32.63 16.50–34.59 | 31.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 6.19–11.22 5.33–12.09 | 17.00 | 6.85 4.55–9.15 3.75–9.95 | 3.00 | 15.56 10.74–20.38 9.08–22.04 | 20.00 | 63% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 2.08–5.25 1.55–5.79 | 7.00 | 3.03 1.61–4.44 1.13–4.93 | 1.00 | 6.70 3.70–9.70 2.68–10.72 | 8.00 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.42–6.83 1.82–7.43 | 16.00 | 4.31 2.33–6.29 1.80–6.83 | 1.00 | 8.94 4.75–13.12 3.62–14.25 | 17.00 | 47% 13% 39% |
| Possession % | 48.68 42.36–55.00 40.77–56.60 | 65.00 | 51.87 45.55–58.19 43.96–59.79 | 35.00 | — | — | 40% 56% |
| Passes | 440 374–505 357–523 | 602 | 464 400–529 382–547 | 344 | 904 774–1034 739–1069 | 946 | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.18 77.97–86.40 76.67–87.70 | 91.00 | 84.39 79.89–88.90 78.56–90.23 | 82.00 | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.26 8.41–14.12 7.52–15.01 | 9.00 | 13.34 10.39–16.28 9.48–17.20 | 8.00 | 24.60 18.80–30.41 17.00–32.21 | 17.00 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.23 0.02–2.43 0.00–2.78 | 2.00 | 1.80 0.64–2.97 0.31–3.30 | 4.00 | 3.03 0.66–5.40 0.00–6.08 | 6.00 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 2.00 | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | 0.00 | 3.68 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 2.00 | 36% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.44–4.27 1.05–4.66 | 1.00 | 2.81 1.26–4.36 0.82–4.80 | 6.00 | 5.66 2.70–8.63 1.87–9.45 | 7.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.