Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Simone Sozza · Italy
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.622.79safe0.21–2.130.76–2.480.97–4.61safer0.00–2.390.52–2.730.46–5.12actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.095.299.39safe2.24–5.953.59–7.005.82–12.95safer1.74–6.453.12–7.474.86–13.92actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9114.3025.21safe7.21–14.6210.92–17.6718.13–32.29safer6.18–15.659.99–18.6116.17–34.25actual17.0011.0028.00
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction6.678.8615.53safe4.16–9.196.56–11.1610.71–20.35safer3.29–10.055.76–11.969.05–22.01actual10.005.0015.00
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.246.27safe1.45–4.611.82–4.653.27–9.27safer0.91–5.151.34–5.142.25–10.29actual5.003.008.00
Corners
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.858.79safe1.73–6.142.87–6.834.60–12.97safer1.14–6.742.33–7.373.47–14.10actual7.002.009.00
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.5551.65safe42.23–54.8645.33–57.97safer40.63–56.4643.74–59.57actual50.0050.00
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction430432862safe365–495367–496732–992safer347–513350–514697–1027actual479493972
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction82.1484.88safe77.93–86.3680.37–89.38safer76.63–87.6679.04–90.71actual85.0087.00
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7312.5026.23safe10.87–16.599.55–15.4420.42–32.03safer9.99–17.478.63–16.3618.62–33.83actual13.008.0021.00
Offsides
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.173.97safe0.60–3.021.00–3.331.60–6.34safer0.25–3.360.67–3.660.92–7.02actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.342.224.56safe1.29–3.401.10–3.342.39–6.74safer1.01–3.670.81–3.631.82–7.30actual5.000.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.282.555.84safe1.87–4.701.00–4.112.87–8.81safer1.48–5.090.57–4.542.05–9.63actual0.007.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 0.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.52–2.73 | 2.00 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.46–5.12 | 2.00 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.09 2.24–5.95 1.74–6.45 | 6.00 | 5.29 3.59–7.00 3.12–7.47 | 2.00 | 9.39 5.82–12.95 4.86–13.92 | 8.00 | 29% 59% |
| Total shots | 10.91 7.21–14.62 6.18–15.65 | 17.00 | 14.30 10.92–17.67 9.99–18.61 | 11.00 | 25.21 18.13–32.29 16.17–34.25 | 28.00 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.67 4.16–9.19 3.29–10.05 | 10.00 | 8.86 6.56–11.16 5.76–11.96 | 5.00 | 15.53 10.71–20.35 9.05–22.01 | 15.00 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.45–4.61 0.91–5.15 | 5.00 | 3.24 1.82–4.65 1.34–5.14 | 3.00 | 6.27 3.27–9.27 2.25–10.29 | 8.00 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 3.94 1.73–6.14 1.14–6.74 | 7.00 | 4.85 2.87–6.83 2.33–7.37 | 2.00 | 8.79 4.60–12.97 3.47–14.10 | 9.00 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Possession % | 48.55 42.23–54.86 40.63–56.46 | 50.00 | 51.65 45.33–57.97 43.74–59.57 | 50.00 | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 430 365–495 347–513 | 479 | 432 367–496 350–514 | 493 | 862 732–992 697–1027 | 972 | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.14 77.93–86.36 76.63–87.66 | 85.00 | 84.88 80.37–89.38 79.04–90.71 | 87.00 | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.87–16.59 9.99–17.47 | 13.00 | 12.50 9.55–15.44 8.63–16.36 | 8.00 | 26.23 20.42–32.03 18.62–33.83 | 21.00 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 2.00 | 2.17 1.00–3.33 0.67–3.66 | 0.00 | 3.97 1.60–6.34 0.92–7.02 | 2.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.34 1.29–3.40 1.01–3.67 | 5.00 | 2.22 1.10–3.34 0.81–3.63 | 0.00 | 4.56 2.39–6.74 1.82–7.30 | 5.00 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.28 1.87–4.70 1.48–5.09 | 0.00 | 2.55 1.00–4.11 0.57–4.54 | 7.00 | 5.84 2.87–8.81 2.05–9.63 | 7.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.