Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.830.972.80safe0.86–2.800.11–1.820.97–4.62safer0.61–3.050.00–2.050.49–5.10
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.603.469.05safe3.73–7.461.71–5.205.45–12.66safer3.24–7.951.25–5.674.49–13.61
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.379.8626.23safe12.44–20.296.30–13.4318.74–33.72safer11.35–21.385.34–14.3816.69–35.77
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction10.476.2116.68safe7.53–13.423.53–8.8911.06–22.30safer6.70–14.252.79–9.639.49–23.87
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.982.326.30safe2.09–5.860.67–3.972.76–9.83safer1.55–6.400.18–4.471.73–10.87
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.563.499.06safe3.35–7.781.49–5.494.84–13.27safer2.77–8.350.96–6.033.74–14.38
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction53.9545.35safe47.16–60.7438.56–52.13safer45.49–62.4136.89–53.80
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction495419914safe428–563353–486781–1048safer410–581335–503745–1084
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction87.2783.38safe83.24–91.3079.06–87.70safer81.95–92.5977.75–89.01
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7512.9324.68safe8.91–14.599.99–15.8718.90–30.46safer8.16–15.349.24–16.6217.39–31.97
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.573.53safe0.80–3.120.47–2.661.28–5.78safer0.50–3.420.18–2.950.69–6.37
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.333.78safe0.40–2.501.20–3.461.60–5.96safer0.13–2.760.91–3.751.04–6.51
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.80
GK saves
22%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.686.00safe0.89–3.762.12–5.233.01–9.00safer0.50–4.151.70–5.662.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 0.97 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 58% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.60 3.73–7.46 3.24–7.95 | 3.46 1.71–5.20 1.25–5.67 | 9.05 5.45–12.66 4.49–13.61 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.37 12.44–20.29 11.35–21.38 | 9.86 6.30–13.43 5.34–14.38 | 26.23 18.74–33.72 16.69–35.77 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.47 7.53–13.42 6.70–14.25 | 6.21 3.53–8.89 2.79–9.63 | 16.68 11.06–22.30 9.49–23.87 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 2.32 0.67–3.97 0.18–4.47 | 6.30 2.76–9.83 1.73–10.87 | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.35–7.78 2.77–8.35 | 3.49 1.49–5.49 0.96–6.03 | 9.06 4.84–13.27 3.74–14.38 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 53.95 47.16–60.74 45.49–62.41 | 45.35 38.56–52.13 36.89–53.80 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 495 428–563 410–581 | 419 353–486 335–503 | 914 781–1048 745–1084 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.27 83.24–91.30 81.95–92.59 | 83.38 79.06–87.70 77.75–89.01 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.91–14.59 8.16–15.34 | 12.93 9.99–15.87 9.24–16.62 | 24.68 18.90–30.46 17.39–31.97 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.57 0.47–2.66 0.18–2.95 | 3.53 1.28–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.76 | 2.33 1.20–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.51 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.89–3.76 0.50–4.15 | 3.68 2.12–5.23 1.70–5.66 | 6.00 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 22% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.