Serie A·Regular Season - 6·
Serie A·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.332.51safe0.21–2.140.48–2.190.69–4.33safer0.00–2.390.25–2.420.21–4.81
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.578.55safe2.11–5.832.83–6.324.94–12.15safer1.62–6.322.37–6.783.98–13.11
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9214.1227.04safe8.99–16.8410.56–17.6819.55–34.53safer7.90–17.939.60–18.6417.50–36.58
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.818.4016.21safe4.87–10.755.72–11.0810.59–21.83safer4.04–11.584.98–11.829.02–23.40
Blocked shots
37%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.937.44safe1.62–5.392.28–5.583.90–10.97safer1.08–5.931.79–6.082.86–12.01
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.939.88safe2.74–7.162.93–6.935.66–14.09safer2.16–7.742.40–7.464.56–15.20
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9751.04safe42.18–55.7644.26–57.83safer40.51–57.4342.59–59.50
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction410418828safe343–477351–484694–961safer325–495334–502658–997
Pass accuracy %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction70.8973.06safe66.86–74.9268.73–77.38safer65.57–76.2167.43–78.69
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6913.4925.18safe8.85–14.5310.55–16.4419.40–30.96safer8.10–15.289.80–17.1917.90–32.47
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.723.29safe0.41–2.730.63–2.811.04–5.54safer0.11–3.030.34–3.100.45–6.13
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.244.36safe1.07–3.171.11–3.372.18–6.54safer0.80–3.430.82–3.661.62–7.09
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.685.75safe1.64–4.511.12–4.242.76–8.75safer1.25–4.900.70–4.661.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 33% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.83 1.62–6.32 | 4.57 2.83–6.32 2.37–6.78 | 8.55 4.94–12.15 3.98–13.11 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.92 8.99–16.84 7.90–17.93 | 14.12 10.56–17.68 9.60–18.64 | 27.04 19.55–34.53 17.50–36.58 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.81 4.87–10.75 4.04–11.58 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 16.21 10.59–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.93 2.28–5.58 1.79–6.08 | 7.44 3.90–10.97 2.86–12.01 | 37% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.74–7.16 2.16–7.74 | 4.93 2.93–6.93 2.40–7.46 | 9.88 5.66–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 48.97 42.18–55.76 40.51–57.43 | 51.04 44.26–57.83 42.59–59.50 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 410 343–477 325–495 | 418 351–484 334–502 | 828 694–961 658–997 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.89 66.86–74.92 65.57–76.21 | 73.06 68.73–77.38 67.43–78.69 | — | 37% 59% |
| Fouls | 11.69 8.85–14.53 8.10–15.28 | 13.49 10.55–16.44 9.80–17.19 | 25.18 19.40–30.96 17.90–32.47 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.29 1.04–5.54 0.45–6.13 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.80–3.43 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.36 2.18–6.54 1.62–7.09 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 2.68 1.12–4.24 0.70–4.66 | 5.75 2.76–8.75 1.95–9.56 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.