Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.833.06safe0.26–2.200.97–2.681.24–4.88safer0.01–2.450.75–2.910.76–5.36
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.275.209.48safe2.41–6.143.46–6.955.87–13.08safer1.92–6.633.00–7.414.92–14.04
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8314.1626.99safe8.90–16.7510.60–17.7319.51–34.48safer7.81–17.859.64–18.6917.46–36.53
Shots in box
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction8.589.1417.73safe5.64–11.526.46–11.8312.10–23.35safer4.81–12.355.73–12.5610.54–24.92
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.214.017.22safe1.33–5.092.35–5.663.68–10.75safer0.78–5.641.86–6.152.64–11.79
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.605.159.75safe2.39–6.813.15–7.155.53–13.96safer1.81–7.392.61–7.684.42–15.07
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.4558.47safe34.66–48.2451.69–65.26safer32.99–49.9150.02–66.93
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction394542937safe327–462476–609803–1070safer309–480458–626767–1106
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction83.6188.43safe79.58–87.6484.11–92.76safer78.29–88.9382.80–94.06
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8311.9423.77safe8.99–14.679.00–14.8917.99–29.55safer8.23–15.428.25–15.6416.48–31.06
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.653.91safe1.10–3.420.56–2.741.66–6.17safer0.80–3.720.27–3.031.07–6.76
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.014.05safe0.99–3.090.88–3.141.87–6.23safer0.72–3.350.59–3.431.31–6.78
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.906.22safe1.88–4.751.35–4.463.23–9.21safer1.49–5.140.92–4.882.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.83 0.97–2.68 0.75–2.91 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.14 1.92–6.63 | 5.20 3.46–6.95 3.00–7.41 | 9.48 5.87–13.08 4.92–14.04 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.90–16.75 7.81–17.85 | 14.16 10.60–17.73 9.64–18.69 | 26.99 19.51–34.48 17.46–36.53 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.58 5.64–11.52 4.81–12.35 | 9.14 6.46–11.83 5.73–12.56 | 17.73 12.10–23.35 10.54–24.92 | 40% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 1.33–5.09 0.78–5.64 | 4.01 2.35–5.66 1.86–6.15 | 7.22 3.68–10.75 2.64–11.79 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.60 2.39–6.81 1.81–7.39 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.61–7.68 | 9.75 5.53–13.96 4.42–15.07 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 41.45 34.66–48.24 32.99–49.91 | 58.47 51.69–65.26 50.02–66.93 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 394 327–462 309–480 | 542 476–609 458–626 | 937 803–1070 767–1106 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.61 79.58–87.64 78.29–88.93 | 88.43 84.11–92.76 82.80–94.06 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.99–14.67 8.23–15.42 | 11.94 9.00–14.89 8.25–15.64 | 23.77 17.99–29.55 16.48–31.06 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.10–3.42 0.80–3.72 | 1.65 0.56–2.74 0.27–3.03 | 3.91 1.66–6.17 1.07–6.76 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.72–3.35 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.78 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.88–4.75 1.49–5.14 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.88 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.