Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
27%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.382.51safe0.16–2.100.52–2.230.69–4.33safer0.00–2.350.30–2.460.21–4.81
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.044.358.39safe2.18–5.902.61–6.094.79–12.00safer1.69–6.392.14–6.563.83–12.95
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5412.7524.29safe7.62–15.479.19–16.3116.81–31.78safer6.53–16.568.23–17.2714.75–33.83
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.917.4215.34safe4.97–10.864.74–10.109.71–20.96safer4.14–11.684.00–10.848.15–22.53
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.346.52safe1.30–5.061.69–4.992.99–10.06safer0.76–5.611.20–5.491.95–11.09
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.959.65safe2.49–6.912.95–6.955.44–13.87safer1.91–7.492.42–7.494.33–14.97
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction43.7955.99safe37.00–50.5849.21–62.78safer35.33–52.2547.54–64.45
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction388492880safe321–455425–558746–1014safer303–473408–576711–1049
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction81.7885.38safe77.75–85.8181.06–89.71safer76.45–87.1079.75–91.02
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0112.3225.33safe10.17–15.859.38–15.2719.55–31.11safer9.42–16.608.63–16.0218.05–32.62
Offsides
60%
19%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.401.373.77safe1.24–3.560.28–2.461.52–6.02safer0.94–3.860.00–2.750.93–6.61
Yellow cards
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.933.69safe0.72–2.810.80–3.061.52–5.87safer0.45–3.080.51–3.350.96–6.43
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.725.72safe1.56–4.431.16–4.282.72–8.71safer1.17–4.820.74–4.701.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.30–2.46 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 31% 27% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.18–5.90 1.69–6.39 | 4.35 2.61–6.09 2.14–6.56 | 8.39 4.79–12.00 3.83–12.95 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 11.54 7.62–15.47 6.53–16.56 | 12.75 9.19–16.31 8.23–17.27 | 24.29 16.81–31.78 14.75–33.83 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.91 4.97–10.86 4.14–11.68 | 7.42 4.74–10.10 4.00–10.84 | 15.34 9.71–20.96 8.15–22.53 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.30–5.06 0.76–5.61 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.20–5.49 | 6.52 2.99–10.06 1.95–11.09 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.91 1.91–7.49 | 4.95 2.95–6.95 2.42–7.49 | 9.65 5.44–13.87 4.33–14.97 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 43.79 37.00–50.58 35.33–52.25 | 55.99 49.21–62.78 47.54–64.45 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 388 321–455 303–473 | 492 425–558 408–576 | 880 746–1014 711–1049 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.78 77.75–85.81 76.45–87.10 | 85.38 81.06–89.71 79.75–91.02 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.01 10.17–15.85 9.42–16.60 | 12.32 9.38–15.27 8.63–16.02 | 25.33 19.55–31.11 18.05–32.62 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.40 1.24–3.56 0.94–3.86 | 1.37 0.28–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 3.77 1.52–6.02 0.93–6.61 | 60% 19% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.69 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 36% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 2.72 1.16–4.28 0.74–4.70 | 5.72 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.