Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.072.60safe0.57–2.510.21–1.920.78–4.43safer0.32–2.760.00–2.150.30–4.91
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.638.49safe3.00–6.721.89–5.374.88–12.09safer2.51–7.211.42–5.843.93–13.05
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3411.4725.81safe10.41–18.267.90–15.0318.32–33.29safer9.32–19.356.95–15.9916.27–35.34
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.717.3016.01safe5.76–11.654.62–9.9810.38–21.63safer4.93–12.483.88–10.728.82–23.20
Blocked shots
63%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.212.847.05safe2.33–6.091.19–4.503.52–10.59safer1.79–6.640.70–4.992.48–11.63
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.743.969.70safe3.53–7.951.96–5.965.49–13.91safer2.95–8.531.43–6.494.38–15.02
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3042.48safe50.51–64.0935.70–49.27safer48.84–65.7634.03–50.94
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction499381880safe432–566315–448746–1014safer414–584297–465711–1049
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction85.0081.78safe80.97–89.0377.45–86.10safer79.68–90.3376.14–87.41
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1113.0025.11safe9.27–14.9510.05–15.9419.32–30.89safer8.52–15.709.30–16.6917.82–32.39
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.213.80safe0.42–2.741.12–3.311.54–6.05safer0.12–3.040.83–3.590.95–6.64
Yellow cards
30%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.923.43safe0.46–2.550.79–3.051.25–5.60safer0.19–2.820.50–3.340.69–6.16
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.355.82safe1.03–3.901.80–4.912.83–8.81safer0.64–4.291.37–5.342.02–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 48% 26% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.72 2.51–7.21 | 3.63 1.89–5.37 1.42–5.84 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.93–13.05 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.34 10.41–18.26 9.32–19.35 | 11.47 7.90–15.03 6.95–15.99 | 25.81 18.32–33.29 16.27–35.34 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 5.76–11.65 4.93–12.48 | 7.30 4.62–9.98 3.88–10.72 | 16.01 10.38–21.63 8.82–23.20 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.33–6.09 1.79–6.64 | 2.84 1.19–4.50 0.70–4.99 | 7.05 3.52–10.59 2.48–11.63 | 63% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.95 2.95–8.53 | 3.96 1.96–5.96 1.43–6.49 | 9.70 5.49–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 57.30 50.51–64.09 48.84–65.76 | 42.48 35.70–49.27 34.03–50.94 | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 499 432–566 414–584 | 381 315–448 297–465 | 880 746–1014 711–1049 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.00 80.97–89.03 79.68–90.33 | 81.78 77.45–86.10 76.14–87.41 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.27–14.95 8.52–15.70 | 13.00 10.05–15.94 9.30–16.69 | 25.11 19.32–30.89 17.82–32.39 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 2.21 1.12–3.31 0.83–3.59 | 3.80 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.92 0.79–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 3.43 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 30% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.03–3.90 0.64–4.29 | 3.35 1.80–4.91 1.37–5.34 | 5.82 2.83–8.81 2.02–9.62 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+