Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.122.54safe0.46–2.390.27–1.980.72–4.37safer0.20–2.640.04–2.200.24–4.85
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.133.828.95safe3.27–7.002.08–5.565.35–12.56safer2.78–7.491.61–6.034.39–13.51
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5312.6227.15safe10.60–18.459.06–16.1819.66–34.64safer9.51–19.558.10–17.1417.61–36.69
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.237.5516.78safe6.29–12.174.87–10.2311.15–22.40safer5.46–13.004.13–10.969.59–23.97
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.317.50safe2.30–6.071.66–4.963.96–11.03safer1.76–6.611.17–5.462.93–12.07
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.604.5610.17safe3.39–7.822.56–6.565.95–14.38safer2.82–8.392.03–7.094.85–15.49
Possession %
54%
42%
homeawayprediction51.1748.67safe44.38–57.9641.89–55.46safer42.71–59.6340.22–57.13
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction384364748safe317–452297–430614–882safer299–470280–448579–917
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction76.0074.85safe71.97–80.0370.52–79.17safer70.68–81.3269.22–80.48
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6713.4525.12safe8.83–14.5110.51–16.4019.34–30.91safer8.08–15.269.76–17.1517.84–32.41
Offsides
75%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction3.191.294.48safe2.03–4.360.19–2.382.23–6.74safer1.73–4.660.00–2.671.64–7.33
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.264.01safe0.70–2.801.13–3.391.83–6.19safer0.43–3.060.84–3.681.28–6.75
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.446.14safe1.27–4.141.88–4.993.15–9.13safer0.88–4.531.45–5.422.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.20 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.13 3.27–7.00 2.78–7.49 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 8.95 5.35–12.56 4.39–13.51 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.53 10.60–18.45 9.51–19.55 | 12.62 9.06–16.18 8.10–17.14 | 27.15 19.66–34.64 17.61–36.69 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.29–12.17 5.46–13.00 | 7.55 4.87–10.23 4.13–10.96 | 16.78 11.15–22.40 9.59–23.97 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.31 1.66–4.96 1.17–5.46 | 7.50 3.96–11.03 2.93–12.07 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.60 3.39–7.82 2.82–8.39 | 4.56 2.56–6.56 2.03–7.09 | 10.17 5.95–14.38 4.85–15.49 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 51.17 44.38–57.96 42.71–59.63 | 48.67 41.89–55.46 40.22–57.13 | — | 54% 42% |
| Passes | 384 317–452 299–470 | 364 297–430 280–448 | 748 614–882 579–917 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.00 71.97–80.03 70.68–81.32 | 74.85 70.52–79.17 69.22–80.48 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.51 8.08–15.26 | 13.45 10.51–16.40 9.76–17.15 | 25.12 19.34–30.91 17.84–32.41 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 3.19 2.03–4.36 1.73–4.66 | 1.29 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 4.48 2.23–6.74 1.64–7.33 | 75% 13% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.43–3.06 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.01 1.83–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.42 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.34–9.95 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.