Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.472.97safe0.53–2.470.62–2.331.15–4.80safer0.28–2.720.39–2.560.67–5.28
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.599.45safe2.99–6.722.85–6.345.84–13.05safer2.50–7.212.38–6.804.89–14.01
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9712.1526.11safe10.04–17.898.58–15.7118.63–33.60safer8.95–18.987.62–16.6716.58–35.65
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.878.4717.34safe5.93–11.815.79–11.1511.71–22.96safer5.10–12.645.05–11.8910.15–24.53
Blocked shots
46%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.593.336.92safe1.71–5.471.67–4.983.38–10.46safer1.17–6.021.18–5.472.35–11.49
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.399.59safe2.99–7.412.39–6.395.38–13.81safer2.41–7.991.86–6.924.27–14.91
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.3150.82safe42.52–56.1044.04–57.61safer40.85–57.7742.37–59.28
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction478493971safe411–545427–559837–1105safer392–563409–577801–1140
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction87.6587.43safe83.62–91.6883.11–91.75safer82.33–92.9781.80–93.06
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8712.3822.25safe7.03–12.719.44–15.3316.47–28.03safer6.28–13.468.69–16.0714.96–29.54
Offsides
31%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.594.61safe0.86–3.181.50–3.682.36–6.86safer0.56–3.481.21–3.971.77–7.45
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.204.01safe0.77–2.871.07–3.321.83–6.19safer0.50–3.130.78–3.621.28–6.75
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
39%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.136.11safe1.54–4.411.58–4.693.11–9.10safer1.15–4.801.15–5.112.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 38% 24% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 2.99–6.72 2.50–7.21 | 4.59 2.85–6.34 2.38–6.80 | 9.45 5.84–13.05 4.89–14.01 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.97 10.04–17.89 8.95–18.98 | 12.15 8.58–15.71 7.62–16.67 | 26.11 18.63–33.60 16.58–35.65 | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.87 5.93–11.81 5.10–12.64 | 8.47 5.79–11.15 5.05–11.89 | 17.34 11.71–22.96 10.15–24.53 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 1.71–5.47 1.17–6.02 | 3.33 1.67–4.98 1.18–5.47 | 6.92 3.38–10.46 2.35–11.49 | 46% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.41 2.41–7.99 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.86–6.92 | 9.59 5.38–13.81 4.27–14.91 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.31 42.52–56.10 40.85–57.77 | 50.82 44.04–57.61 42.37–59.28 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 392–563 | 493 427–559 409–577 | 971 837–1105 801–1140 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.65 83.62–91.68 82.33–92.97 | 87.43 83.11–91.75 81.80–93.06 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 9.87 7.03–12.71 6.28–13.46 | 12.38 9.44–15.33 8.69–16.07 | 22.25 16.47–28.03 14.96–29.54 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 2.59 1.50–3.68 1.21–3.97 | 4.61 2.36–6.86 1.77–7.45 | 31% 19% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 2.20 1.07–3.32 0.78–3.62 | 4.01 1.83–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 3.13 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 6.11 3.11–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 39% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.