Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.142.84safe0.74–2.680.28–1.991.02–4.67safer0.49–2.930.05–2.220.54–5.15
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.439.19safe3.90–7.631.69–5.175.59–12.80safer3.41–8.121.22–5.644.63–13.75
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction18.729.6528.38safe14.80–22.656.09–13.2220.89–35.86safer13.71–23.745.13–14.1818.84–37.91
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction11.366.4917.86safe8.42–14.313.81–9.1712.23–23.48safer7.59–15.143.07–9.9110.67–25.05
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.102.978.07safe3.21–6.981.32–4.634.53–11.60safer2.67–7.520.83–5.123.50–12.64
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.223.479.69safe4.01–8.441.47–5.475.48–13.91safer3.44–9.010.94–6.004.37–15.01
Possession %
57%
39%
homeawayprediction51.6147.82safe44.82–58.4041.04–54.61safer43.15–60.0739.37–56.28
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction471463934safe404–539396–529800–1068safer386–557379–547765–1103
Pass accuracy %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction76.4973.91safe72.46–80.5269.58–78.23safer71.17–81.8168.27–79.54
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3210.8622.19safe8.49–14.167.92–13.8116.40–27.97safer7.73–14.927.17–14.5514.90–29.47
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.393.00safe0.45–2.770.30–2.490.75–5.26safer0.15–3.070.01–2.770.16–5.85
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.063.69safe0.58–2.680.93–3.191.51–5.87safer0.32–2.950.64–3.480.96–6.43
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
19%
13%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.856.04safe0.76–3.632.30–5.413.05–9.04safer0.37–4.021.87–5.832.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.74–2.68 0.49–2.93 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.84 1.02–4.67 0.54–5.15 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.77 3.90–7.63 3.41–8.12 | 3.43 1.69–5.17 1.22–5.64 | 9.19 5.59–12.80 4.63–13.75 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 18.72 14.80–22.65 13.71–23.74 | 9.65 6.09–13.22 5.13–14.18 | 28.38 20.89–35.86 18.84–37.91 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 11.36 8.42–14.31 7.59–15.14 | 6.49 3.81–9.17 3.07–9.91 | 17.86 12.23–23.48 10.67–25.05 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 5.10 3.21–6.98 2.67–7.52 | 2.97 1.32–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 8.07 4.53–11.60 3.50–12.64 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.22 4.01–8.44 3.44–9.01 | 3.47 1.47–5.47 0.94–6.00 | 9.69 5.48–13.91 4.37–15.01 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 51.61 44.82–58.40 43.15–60.07 | 47.82 41.04–54.61 39.37–56.28 | — | 57% 39% |
| Passes | 471 404–539 386–557 | 463 396–529 379–547 | 934 800–1068 765–1103 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.49 72.46–80.52 71.17–81.81 | 73.91 69.58–78.23 68.27–79.54 | — | 61% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.32 8.49–14.16 7.73–14.92 | 10.86 7.92–13.81 7.17–14.55 | 22.19 16.40–27.97 14.90–29.47 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.39 0.30–2.49 0.01–2.77 | 3.00 0.75–5.26 0.16–5.85 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.32–2.95 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.69 1.51–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.76–3.63 0.37–4.02 | 3.85 2.30–5.41 1.87–5.83 | 6.04 3.05–9.04 2.24–9.85 | 19% 13% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.