Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.522.72safe0.23–2.170.67–2.380.90–4.54safer0.00–2.420.44–2.600.42–5.02
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.979.02safe2.19–5.923.22–6.715.42–12.63safer1.70–6.412.76–7.174.46–13.58
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6914.2725.96safe7.76–15.6110.71–17.8418.48–33.45safer6.67–16.709.75–18.8016.42–35.50
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.869.3717.22safe4.91–10.806.69–12.0511.60–22.85safer4.09–11.635.95–12.7810.03–24.41
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.787.29safe1.63–5.392.12–5.433.75–10.82safer1.08–5.931.63–5.922.72–11.86
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.799.67safe2.67–7.102.79–6.795.46–13.88safer2.10–7.672.25–7.324.35–14.99
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8248.58safe45.03–58.6141.79–55.36safer43.36–60.2840.12–57.04
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction503470973safe436–570404–537840–1107safer418–588386–554804–1143
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction75.4676.54safe71.43–79.4972.21–80.86safer70.14–80.7970.90–82.17
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6812.2121.89safe6.84–12.529.26–15.1516.11–27.67safer6.09–13.278.52–15.9014.60–29.17
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.473.03safe0.40–2.720.38–2.560.78–5.28safer0.10–3.020.09–2.850.19–5.87
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.853.52safe0.62–2.720.73–2.981.34–5.70safer0.35–2.980.43–3.280.79–6.26
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.665.98safe1.88–4.751.10–4.222.98–8.97safer1.49–5.140.68–4.642.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.52 0.67–2.38 0.44–2.60 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.41 | 4.97 3.22–6.71 2.76–7.17 | 9.02 5.42–12.63 4.46–13.58 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.76–15.61 6.67–16.70 | 14.27 10.71–17.84 9.75–18.80 | 25.96 18.48–33.45 16.42–35.50 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.91–10.80 4.09–11.63 | 9.37 6.69–12.05 5.95–12.78 | 17.22 11.60–22.85 10.03–24.41 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.78 2.12–5.43 1.63–5.92 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.10 2.10–7.67 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.25–7.32 | 9.67 5.46–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 51.82 45.03–58.61 43.36–60.28 | 48.58 41.79–55.36 40.12–57.04 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 503 436–570 418–588 | 470 404–537 386–554 | 973 840–1107 804–1143 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.46 71.43–79.49 70.14–80.79 | 76.54 72.21–80.86 70.90–82.17 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 9.68 6.84–12.52 6.09–13.27 | 12.21 9.26–15.15 8.52–15.90 | 21.89 16.11–27.67 14.60–29.17 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.10–3.02 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 1.85 0.73–2.98 0.43–3.28 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.88–4.75 1.49–5.14 | 2.66 1.10–4.22 0.68–4.64 | 5.98 2.98–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 52% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+