Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.462.60safe0.17–2.110.61–2.320.78–4.43safer0.00–2.360.38–2.540.30–4.91
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.964.548.51safe2.10–5.832.80–6.284.90–12.11safer1.61–6.322.33–6.753.95–13.07
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9012.0424.93safe8.97–16.828.47–15.6017.44–32.42safer7.88–17.917.51–16.5615.39–34.47
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.159.0217.17safe5.21–11.106.34–11.7011.55–22.80safer4.38–11.935.60–12.449.98–24.36
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.602.986.57safe1.71–5.481.33–4.633.04–10.11safer1.17–6.020.83–5.122.00–11.15
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.8110.15safe3.13–7.552.81–6.815.93–14.36safer2.55–8.132.27–7.344.83–15.47
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.2950.54safe43.50–57.0843.75–57.32safer41.83–58.7542.08–58.99
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction413425838safe346–480358–491704–971safer328–498341–509668–1007
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction76.7774.53safe72.74–80.8070.21–78.86safer71.45–82.0968.90–80.17
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0111.3524.36safe10.18–15.858.40–14.2918.58–30.14safer9.42–16.617.66–15.0417.08–31.65
Offsides
15%
15%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.483.094.57safe0.32–2.642.00–4.182.31–6.82safer0.02–2.941.71–4.471.72–7.41
Yellow cards
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.803.68safe0.83–2.930.67–2.931.50–5.86safer0.56–3.190.38–3.220.94–6.41
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.955.70safe1.31–4.181.40–4.512.70–8.69safer0.92–4.570.97–4.931.89–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.46 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.54 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.96 2.10–5.83 1.61–6.32 | 4.54 2.80–6.28 2.33–6.75 | 8.51 4.90–12.11 3.95–13.07 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.90 8.97–16.82 7.88–17.91 | 12.04 8.47–15.60 7.51–16.56 | 24.93 17.44–32.42 15.39–34.47 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 8.15 5.21–11.10 4.38–11.93 | 9.02 6.34–11.70 5.60–12.44 | 17.17 11.55–22.80 9.98–24.36 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.71–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 2.98 1.33–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 6.57 3.04–10.11 2.00–11.15 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.55 2.55–8.13 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.27–7.34 | 10.15 5.93–14.36 4.83–15.47 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 50.29 43.50–57.08 41.83–58.75 | 50.54 43.75–57.32 42.08–58.99 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 413 346–480 328–498 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 838 704–971 668–1007 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.77 72.74–80.80 71.45–82.09 | 74.53 70.21–78.86 68.90–80.17 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 13.01 10.18–15.85 9.42–16.61 | 11.35 8.40–14.29 7.66–15.04 | 24.36 18.58–30.14 17.08–31.65 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 3.09 2.00–4.18 1.71–4.47 | 4.57 2.31–6.82 1.72–7.41 | 15% 15% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.56–3.19 | 1.80 0.67–2.93 0.38–3.22 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.94–6.41 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 5.70 2.70–8.69 1.89–9.50 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.