Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
19%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.341.463.80safe1.37–3.310.61–2.321.98–5.63safer1.12–3.560.38–2.541.50–6.11
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.474.7411.22safe4.61–8.333.00–6.497.61–14.82safer4.12–8.822.54–6.956.65–15.78
Total shots
75%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1012.9130.00safe13.17–21.029.34–16.4722.52–37.49safer12.08–22.118.38–17.4320.46–39.54
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction12.377.8020.17safe9.43–15.325.12–10.4814.55–25.80safer8.60–16.144.38–11.2212.98–27.36
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.617.60safe2.10–5.871.96–5.264.06–11.13safer1.56–6.411.46–5.763.03–12.17
Corners
67%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.024.1510.17safe3.81–8.232.15–6.155.95–14.38safer3.23–8.811.62–6.684.85–15.49
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.5945.72safe47.80–61.3838.94–52.51safer46.13–63.0537.27–54.18
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction511448958safe444–578381–514825–1092safer425–596364–532789–1128
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction85.5882.64safe81.55–89.6178.31–86.96safer80.26–90.9077.00–88.27
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1810.9621.14safe7.35–13.028.01–13.9015.36–26.92safer6.59–13.787.26–14.6513.85–28.43
Offsides
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.185.60safe2.26–4.581.08–3.273.34–7.85safer1.96–4.880.79–3.562.75–8.44
Yellow cards
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.883.49safe0.56–2.660.75–3.011.31–5.67safer0.30–2.930.46–3.300.75–6.23
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.886.93safe1.61–4.482.32–5.433.93–9.92safer1.23–4.871.90–5.863.12–10.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.34 1.37–3.31 1.12–3.56 | 1.46 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.54 | 3.80 1.98–5.63 1.50–6.11 | 57% 19% 23% |
| Shots on target | 6.47 4.61–8.33 4.12–8.82 | 4.74 3.00–6.49 2.54–6.95 | 11.22 7.61–14.82 6.65–15.78 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 17.10 13.17–21.02 12.08–22.11 | 12.91 9.34–16.47 8.38–17.43 | 30.00 22.52–37.49 20.46–39.54 | 75% 20% |
| Shots in box | 12.37 9.43–15.32 8.60–16.14 | 7.80 5.12–10.48 4.38–11.22 | 20.17 14.55–25.80 12.98–27.36 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.10–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 3.61 1.96–5.26 1.46–5.76 | 7.60 4.06–11.13 3.03–12.17 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.81–8.23 3.23–8.81 | 4.15 2.15–6.15 1.62–6.68 | 10.17 5.95–14.38 4.85–15.49 | 67% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.59 47.80–61.38 46.13–63.05 | 45.72 38.94–52.51 37.27–54.18 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 511 444–578 425–596 | 448 381–514 364–532 | 958 825–1092 789–1128 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.58 81.55–89.61 80.26–90.90 | 82.64 78.31–86.96 77.00–88.27 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 10.18 7.35–13.02 6.59–13.78 | 10.96 8.01–13.90 7.26–14.65 | 21.14 15.36–26.92 13.85–28.43 | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 3.42 2.26–4.58 1.96–4.88 | 2.18 1.08–3.27 0.79–3.56 | 5.60 3.34–7.85 2.75–8.44 | 62% 15% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.49 1.31–5.67 0.75–6.23 | 33% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.23–4.87 | 3.88 2.32–5.43 1.90–5.86 | 6.93 3.93–9.92 3.12–10.73 | 30% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.