Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.272.87safe0.63–2.570.42–2.131.05–4.70safer0.38–2.820.19–2.360.57–5.18
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.189.02safe2.97–6.702.44–5.935.41–12.62safer2.48–7.191.98–6.394.46–13.58
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6412.9026.55safe9.72–17.579.34–16.4719.06–34.03safer8.63–18.668.38–17.4217.01–36.09
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.307.8617.16safe6.36–12.245.18–10.5411.53–22.78safer5.53–13.074.44–11.279.97–24.35
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.297.08safe1.91–5.671.64–4.953.55–10.62safer1.36–6.211.15–5.442.51–11.65
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.4810.16safe3.47–7.902.48–6.485.95–14.38safer2.90–8.471.95–7.014.84–15.49
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.6049.23safe44.81–58.3942.45–56.02safer43.14–60.0640.77–57.69
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction492467959safe424–559401–534825–1093safer406–577383–551790–1129
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction80.4782.45safe76.44–84.4978.13–86.77safer75.14–85.7976.82–88.08
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3810.7323.11safe9.54–15.227.79–13.6817.33–28.89safer8.78–15.977.04–14.4215.82–30.40
Offsides
51%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.192.97safe0.61–2.930.10–2.290.71–5.22safer0.31–3.230.00–2.580.12–5.81
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.853.76safe0.87–2.970.72–2.971.59–5.94safer0.60–3.230.43–3.271.03–6.50
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.18safe0.00–0.270.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.420.00–0.390.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.265.99safe1.29–4.161.71–4.822.99–8.98safer0.90–4.551.28–5.242.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.87 1.05–4.70 0.57–5.18 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.97–6.70 2.48–7.19 | 4.18 2.44–5.93 1.98–6.39 | 9.02 5.41–12.62 4.46–13.58 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.64 9.72–17.57 8.63–18.66 | 12.90 9.34–16.47 8.38–17.42 | 26.55 19.06–34.03 17.01–36.09 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.30 6.36–12.24 5.53–13.07 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.44–11.27 | 17.16 11.53–22.78 9.97–24.35 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.67 1.36–6.21 | 3.29 1.64–4.95 1.15–5.44 | 7.08 3.55–10.62 2.51–11.65 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.47–7.90 2.90–8.47 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 10.16 5.95–14.38 4.84–15.49 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 51.60 44.81–58.39 43.14–60.06 | 49.23 42.45–56.02 40.77–57.69 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 492 424–559 406–577 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 959 825–1093 790–1129 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.47 76.44–84.49 75.14–85.79 | 82.45 78.13–86.77 76.82–88.08 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.22 8.78–15.97 | 10.73 7.79–13.68 7.04–14.42 | 23.11 17.33–28.89 15.82–30.40 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.19 0.10–2.29 0.00–2.58 | 2.97 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.81 | 51% 23% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.23 | 1.85 0.72–2.97 0.43–3.27 | 3.76 1.59–5.94 1.03–6.50 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 3.26 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.99 2.99–8.98 2.18–9.79 | 33% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+