Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.390.962.35safe0.42–2.360.10–1.810.52–4.17safer0.17–2.610.00–2.040.05–4.65
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.033.528.55safe3.17–6.891.78–5.264.94–12.15safer2.68–7.381.31–5.733.99–13.11
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4810.7125.18safe10.55–18.407.14–14.2717.70–32.67safer9.46–19.496.18–15.2315.64–34.72
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.606.5715.16safe5.65–11.543.89–9.259.54–20.79safer4.82–12.373.15–9.997.97–22.35
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.612.856.46safe1.73–5.491.20–4.502.93–10.00safer1.19–6.040.71–5.001.89–11.03
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.049.72safe3.47–7.892.04–6.045.51–13.94safer2.89–8.471.51–6.584.40–15.04
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.6841.27safe51.89–65.4734.48–48.05safer50.22–67.1432.81–49.72
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction499356855safe432–566290–423721–989safer414–584272–440686–1025
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction83.6177.93safe79.58–87.6473.61–82.26safer78.28–88.9372.30–83.57
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6213.5624.18safe7.79–13.4610.61–16.5018.40–29.96safer7.03–14.229.87–17.2516.90–31.47
Offsides
63%
16%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.021.754.78safe1.86–4.180.66–2.852.53–7.03safer1.56–4.490.37–3.141.94–7.62
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.133.64safe0.46–2.551.00–3.261.46–5.81safer0.19–2.820.71–3.550.90–6.37
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.413.365.76safe0.97–3.841.80–4.912.77–8.76safer0.58–4.231.38–5.341.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 0.96 0.10–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.35 0.52–4.17 0.05–4.65 | 47% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.17–6.89 2.68–7.38 | 3.52 1.78–5.26 1.31–5.73 | 8.55 4.94–12.15 3.99–13.11 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.48 10.55–18.40 9.46–19.49 | 10.71 7.14–14.27 6.18–15.23 | 25.18 17.70–32.67 15.64–34.72 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.60 5.65–11.54 4.82–12.37 | 6.57 3.89–9.25 3.15–9.99 | 15.16 9.54–20.79 7.97–22.35 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 1.73–5.49 1.19–6.04 | 2.85 1.20–4.50 0.71–5.00 | 6.46 2.93–10.00 1.89–11.03 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.68 3.47–7.89 2.89–8.47 | 4.04 2.04–6.04 1.51–6.58 | 9.72 5.51–13.94 4.40–15.04 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 58.68 51.89–65.47 50.22–67.14 | 41.27 34.48–48.05 32.81–49.72 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 499 432–566 414–584 | 356 290–423 272–440 | 855 721–989 686–1025 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.61 79.58–87.64 78.28–88.93 | 77.93 73.61–82.26 72.30–83.57 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.62 7.79–13.46 7.03–14.22 | 13.56 10.61–16.50 9.87–17.25 | 24.18 18.40–29.96 16.90–31.47 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 3.02 1.86–4.18 1.56–4.49 | 1.75 0.66–2.85 0.37–3.14 | 4.78 2.53–7.03 1.94–7.62 | 63% 16% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 3.64 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.97–3.84 0.58–4.23 | 3.36 1.80–4.91 1.38–5.34 | 5.76 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.