Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.432.57safe0.18–2.110.57–2.280.75–4.40safer0.00–2.370.34–2.510.27–4.88
Shots on target
36%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.004.558.55safe2.13–5.862.81–6.294.94–12.15safer1.64–6.352.34–6.763.99–13.11
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3911.4523.84safe8.47–16.327.89–15.0116.35–31.33safer7.37–17.416.93–15.9714.30–33.38
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.287.4615.74safe5.34–11.224.78–10.1410.12–21.36safer4.51–12.054.04–10.888.55–22.93
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.886.26safe1.50–5.261.23–4.532.72–9.80safer0.96–5.810.73–5.021.69–10.83
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.679.66safe2.78–7.202.67–6.675.45–13.87safer2.20–7.782.14–7.204.34–14.98
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.2855.67safe37.49–51.0748.89–62.46safer35.82–52.7447.22–64.13
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction381487868safe314–448421–554735–1002safer296–466403–571699–1038
Pass accuracy %
26%
69%
homeawayprediction79.1483.57safe75.11–83.1779.25–87.90safer73.82–84.4677.94–89.21
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8411.5525.38safe11.00–16.688.60–14.4919.60–31.17safer10.24–17.437.85–15.2418.10–32.67
Offsides
28%
19%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.534.36safe0.67–2.991.43–3.622.10–6.61safer0.37–3.291.15–3.911.51–7.20
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.743.60safe0.81–2.910.61–2.871.42–5.78safer0.54–3.170.32–3.160.87–6.34
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.20safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.705.75safe1.61–4.491.15–4.262.76–8.75safer1.23–4.870.72–4.681.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.37 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.57 0.75–4.40 0.27–4.88 | 30% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.00 2.13–5.86 1.64–6.35 | 4.55 2.81–6.29 2.34–6.76 | 8.55 4.94–12.15 3.99–13.11 | 36% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.39 8.47–16.32 7.37–17.41 | 11.45 7.89–15.01 6.93–15.97 | 23.84 16.35–31.33 14.30–33.38 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.28 5.34–11.22 4.51–12.05 | 7.46 4.78–10.14 4.04–10.88 | 15.74 10.12–21.36 8.55–22.93 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.96–5.81 | 2.88 1.23–4.53 0.73–5.02 | 6.26 2.72–9.80 1.69–10.83 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.78–7.20 2.20–7.78 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.20 | 9.66 5.45–13.87 4.34–14.98 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 44.28 37.49–51.07 35.82–52.74 | 55.67 48.89–62.46 47.22–64.13 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 381 314–448 296–466 | 487 421–554 403–571 | 868 735–1002 699–1038 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.14 75.11–83.17 73.82–84.46 | 83.57 79.25–87.90 77.94–89.21 | — | 26% 69% |
| Fouls | 13.84 11.00–16.68 10.24–17.43 | 11.55 8.60–14.49 7.85–15.24 | 25.38 19.60–31.17 18.10–32.67 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 2.53 1.43–3.62 1.15–3.91 | 4.36 2.10–6.61 1.51–7.20 | 28% 19% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.54–3.17 | 1.74 0.61–2.87 0.32–3.16 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.87–6.34 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.49 1.23–4.87 | 2.70 1.15–4.26 0.72–4.68 | 5.75 2.76–8.75 1.95–9.56 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.