Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.522.79safe0.31–2.240.66–2.370.97–4.61safer0.05–2.490.43–2.600.49–5.09
Shots on target
40%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.384.598.97safe2.52–6.242.85–6.345.37–12.58safer2.03–6.732.38–6.804.41–13.54
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0913.0225.11safe8.16–16.019.46–16.5817.62–32.59safer7.07–17.108.50–17.5415.57–34.65
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.008.6815.68safe4.06–9.956.00–11.3610.06–21.31safer3.23–10.785.26–12.108.49–22.87
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.066.60safe1.66–5.421.41–4.713.06–10.13safer1.11–5.960.92–5.212.03–11.17
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.699.42safe2.51–6.942.69–6.695.20–13.63safer1.94–7.512.16–7.224.10–14.74
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.7846.84safe46.99–60.5740.05–53.62safer45.32–62.2438.38–55.30
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction473410883safe406–540343–476749–1017safer388–559326–494714–1052
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction83.1380.53safe79.10–87.1676.21–84.86safer77.81–88.4574.90–86.16
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1313.3724.50safe8.29–13.9610.43–16.3218.72–30.28safer7.53–14.729.68–17.0717.21–31.79
Offsides
50%
20%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.331.804.13safe1.17–3.490.70–2.891.87–6.38safer0.87–3.790.42–3.181.28–6.97
Yellow cards
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.124.07safe0.90–3.000.99–3.251.89–6.25safer0.63–3.260.70–3.541.34–6.81
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.093.096.17safe1.65–4.521.53–4.643.18–9.17safer1.26–4.911.11–5.072.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.52 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 4.59 2.85–6.34 2.38–6.80 | 8.97 5.37–12.58 4.41–13.54 | 40% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.09 8.16–16.01 7.07–17.10 | 13.02 9.46–16.58 8.50–17.54 | 25.11 17.62–32.59 15.57–34.65 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.00 4.06–9.95 3.23–10.78 | 8.68 6.00–11.36 5.26–12.10 | 15.68 10.06–21.31 8.49–22.87 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 3.06 1.41–4.71 0.92–5.21 | 6.60 3.06–10.13 2.03–11.17 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 4.73 2.51–6.94 1.94–7.51 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.22 | 9.42 5.20–13.63 4.10–14.74 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 53.78 46.99–60.57 45.32–62.24 | 46.84 40.05–53.62 38.38–55.30 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 473 406–540 388–559 | 410 343–476 326–494 | 883 749–1017 714–1052 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.13 79.10–87.16 77.81–88.45 | 80.53 76.21–84.86 74.90–86.16 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.13 8.29–13.96 7.53–14.72 | 13.37 10.43–16.32 9.68–17.07 | 24.50 18.72–30.28 17.21–31.79 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.33 1.17–3.49 0.87–3.79 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 4.13 1.87–6.38 1.28–6.97 | 50% 20% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.63–3.26 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 3.09 1.53–4.64 1.11–5.07 | 6.17 3.18–9.17 2.37–9.98 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.