Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.452.66safe0.24–2.180.60–2.310.84–4.48safer0.00–2.430.37–2.540.36–4.96
Shots on target
39%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.344.638.97safe2.47–6.202.89–6.375.36–12.57safer1.99–6.692.42–6.844.41–13.53
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5013.2925.79safe8.58–16.439.73–16.8518.31–33.28safer7.49–17.528.77–17.8116.26–35.33
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.638.7916.43safe4.69–10.586.11–11.4710.80–22.05safer3.86–11.415.37–12.219.24–23.62
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.757.13safe1.50–5.272.09–5.403.59–10.66safer0.96–5.811.60–5.892.56–11.70
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.535.019.54safe2.32–6.743.01–7.015.33–13.76safer1.74–7.322.48–7.554.22–14.86
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.4657.48safe36.67–50.2550.70–64.27safer35.00–51.9249.03–65.94
Passes
19%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction377480857safe310–444414–546723–991safer292–462396–564688–1026
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction79.4084.73safe75.38–83.4380.40–89.05safer74.08–84.7379.09–90.36
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0313.1427.17safe11.19–16.8710.20–16.0821.39–32.95safer10.44–17.629.45–16.8319.88–34.46
Offsides
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.162.91safe0.59–2.910.07–2.260.66–5.17safer0.29–3.210.00–2.550.07–5.76
Yellow cards
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.733.88safe1.10–3.200.60–2.851.70–6.06safer0.84–3.470.31–3.151.14–6.61
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.065.89safe1.40–4.271.50–4.612.90–8.88safer1.01–4.661.07–5.042.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.45 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.47–6.20 1.99–6.69 | 4.63 2.89–6.37 2.42–6.84 | 8.97 5.36–12.57 4.41–13.53 | 39% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.50 8.58–16.43 7.49–17.52 | 13.29 9.73–16.85 8.77–17.81 | 25.79 18.31–33.28 16.26–35.33 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.63 4.69–10.58 3.86–11.41 | 8.79 6.11–11.47 5.37–12.21 | 16.43 10.80–22.05 9.24–23.62 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 3.75 2.09–5.40 1.60–5.89 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.53 2.32–6.74 1.74–7.32 | 5.01 3.01–7.01 2.48–7.55 | 9.54 5.33–13.76 4.22–14.86 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 43.46 36.67–50.25 35.00–51.92 | 57.48 50.70–64.27 49.03–65.94 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 377 310–444 292–462 | 480 414–546 396–564 | 857 723–991 688–1026 | 19% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.40 75.38–83.43 74.08–84.73 | 84.73 80.40–89.05 79.09–90.36 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 14.03 11.19–16.87 10.44–17.62 | 13.14 10.20–16.08 9.45–16.83 | 27.17 21.39–32.95 19.88–34.46 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.16 0.07–2.26 0.00–2.55 | 2.91 0.66–5.17 0.07–5.76 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 1.73 0.60–2.85 0.31–3.15 | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.14–6.61 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | 5.89 2.90–8.88 2.09–9.70 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.