Serie A·Regular Season - 22·
Serie A·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.292.79safe0.53–2.470.44–2.150.97–4.61safer0.28–2.720.21–2.380.49–5.09
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.179.08safe3.04–6.762.43–5.925.47–12.68safer2.55–7.251.97–6.384.52–13.64
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5811.9126.50safe10.66–18.518.35–15.4819.01–33.98safer9.57–19.607.39–16.4416.96–36.04
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.288.0417.32safe6.34–12.225.36–10.7211.70–22.94safer5.51–13.054.62–11.4610.13–24.51
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.132.746.87safe2.25–6.011.09–4.393.33–10.40safer1.70–6.550.59–4.882.30–11.44
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.634.099.73safe3.42–7.852.09–6.095.51–13.94safer2.85–8.421.56–6.634.40–15.05
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction60.2040.77safe53.40–66.9933.98–47.55safer51.74–68.6532.31–49.22
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction549374923safe481–616308–441789–1057safer463–634291–458754–1092
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction86.4476.45safe82.41–90.4772.13–80.77safer81.12–91.7670.82–82.08
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6712.8624.53safe8.83–14.509.92–15.8118.75–30.31safer8.07–15.269.17–16.5617.25–31.82
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.813.21safe0.24–2.560.72–2.900.95–5.46safer0.00–2.860.43–3.190.36–6.05
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.163.59safe0.38–2.481.03–3.291.41–5.77safer0.12–2.750.74–3.580.85–6.32
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.506.34safe1.40–4.281.94–5.053.34–9.33safer1.02–4.661.52–5.482.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.29 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.76 2.55–7.25 | 4.17 2.43–5.92 1.97–6.38 | 9.08 5.47–12.68 4.52–13.64 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.58 10.66–18.51 9.57–19.60 | 11.91 8.35–15.48 7.39–16.44 | 26.50 19.01–33.98 16.96–36.04 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.28 6.34–12.22 5.51–13.05 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 17.32 11.70–22.94 10.13–24.51 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 2.25–6.01 1.70–6.55 | 2.74 1.09–4.39 0.59–4.88 | 6.87 3.33–10.40 2.30–11.44 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 5.63 3.42–7.85 2.85–8.42 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.56–6.63 | 9.73 5.51–13.94 4.40–15.05 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 60.20 53.40–66.99 51.74–68.65 | 40.77 33.98–47.55 32.31–49.22 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 549 481–616 463–634 | 374 308–441 291–458 | 923 789–1057 754–1092 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.44 82.41–90.47 81.12–91.76 | 76.45 72.13–80.77 70.82–82.08 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.50 8.07–15.26 | 12.86 9.92–15.81 9.17–16.56 | 24.53 18.75–30.31 17.25–31.82 | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.21 0.95–5.46 0.36–6.05 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.59 1.41–5.77 0.85–6.32 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.28 1.02–4.66 | 3.50 1.94–5.05 1.52–5.48 | 6.34 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.