Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.912.89safe0.01–1.951.06–2.761.07–4.72safer0.00–2.200.83–2.990.59–5.20
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.975.879.84safe2.11–5.834.13–7.616.23–13.44safer1.62–6.323.66–8.085.28–14.40
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5614.8227.38safe8.63–16.4811.26–18.3819.89–34.86safer7.54–17.5710.30–19.3417.84–36.91
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction7.199.9717.16safe4.25–10.137.29–12.6511.54–22.79safer3.42–10.966.55–13.399.97–24.35
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.047.32safe1.40–5.162.38–5.693.78–10.85safer0.85–5.701.89–6.182.74–11.89
Corners
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.025.159.17safe1.81–6.243.15–7.154.96–13.38safer1.24–6.812.61–7.683.85–14.49
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction43.9355.86safe37.14–50.7249.08–62.65safer35.47–52.3947.41–64.32
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction440535974safe372–507468–601841–1108safer354–525451–619805–1144
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction81.7587.17safe77.72–85.7882.84–91.49safer76.43–87.0881.54–92.80
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9511.2723.22safe9.11–14.788.33–14.2217.44–29.00safer8.35–15.547.58–14.9615.93–30.51
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.341.724.06safe1.18–3.500.63–2.811.81–6.31safer0.88–3.800.34–3.101.22–6.90
Yellow cards
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.583.67safe1.04–3.140.45–2.711.49–5.84safer0.77–3.400.16–3.000.93–6.40
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.892.906.79safe2.46–5.331.34–4.453.80–9.78safer2.07–5.720.92–4.882.99–10.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 1.91 1.06–2.76 0.83–2.99 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.83 1.62–6.32 | 5.87 4.13–7.61 3.66–8.08 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.28–14.40 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.63–16.48 7.54–17.57 | 14.82 11.26–18.38 10.30–19.34 | 27.38 19.89–34.86 17.84–36.91 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 7.19 4.25–10.13 3.42–10.96 | 9.97 7.29–12.65 6.55–13.39 | 17.16 11.54–22.79 9.97–24.35 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 3.28 1.40–5.16 0.85–5.70 | 4.04 2.38–5.69 1.89–6.18 | 7.32 3.78–10.85 2.74–11.89 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 4.02 1.81–6.24 1.24–6.81 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.61–7.68 | 9.17 4.96–13.38 3.85–14.49 | 29% 58% |
| Possession % | 43.93 37.14–50.72 35.47–52.39 | 55.86 49.08–62.65 47.41–64.32 | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 440 372–507 354–525 | 535 468–601 451–619 | 974 841–1108 805–1144 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.75 77.72–85.78 76.43–87.08 | 87.17 82.84–91.49 81.54–92.80 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.95 9.11–14.78 8.35–15.54 | 11.27 8.33–14.22 7.58–14.96 | 23.22 17.44–29.00 15.93–30.51 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.34 1.18–3.50 0.88–3.80 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 4.06 1.81–6.31 1.22–6.90 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 1.58 0.45–2.71 0.16–3.00 | 3.67 1.49–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 50% 21% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.89 2.46–5.33 2.07–5.72 | 2.90 1.34–4.45 0.92–4.88 | 6.79 3.80–9.78 2.99–10.59 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.