Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.532.53safe0.03–1.970.68–2.390.71–4.35safer0.00–2.220.45–2.620.23–4.83
Shots on target
29%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.604.648.24safe1.74–5.472.90–6.384.64–11.85safer1.25–5.962.43–6.853.68–12.80
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3913.5123.90safe6.46–14.319.95–17.0816.42–31.39safer5.37–15.408.99–18.0414.37–33.44
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.118.7315.84safe4.17–10.056.05–11.4110.21–21.46safer3.34–10.885.31–12.148.65–23.03
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.954.137.07safe1.07–4.832.47–5.783.54–10.61safer0.52–5.371.98–6.272.50–11.64
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.145.359.49safe1.93–6.363.35–7.355.28–13.70safer1.36–6.932.81–7.884.17–14.81
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.4057.46safe35.61–49.1950.67–64.24safer33.94–50.8649.00–65.91
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction394510904safe327–461443–576770–1037safer309–479426–594734–1073
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction81.2787.32safe77.24–85.3083.00–91.64safer75.95–86.5981.69–92.95
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8912.5525.44safe10.06–15.739.60–15.4919.66–31.22safer9.30–16.498.85–16.2418.16–32.73
Offsides
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.373.03safe0.49–2.820.28–2.470.78–5.28safer0.19–3.120.00–2.760.19–5.87
Yellow cards
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.783.92safe1.10–3.200.65–2.901.75–6.10safer0.83–3.460.36–3.201.19–6.66
Red cards
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.605.75safe1.71–4.581.05–4.162.76–8.74safer1.32–4.970.62–4.591.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.53 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 25% 26% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.74–5.47 1.25–5.96 | 4.64 2.90–6.38 2.43–6.85 | 8.24 4.64–11.85 3.68–12.80 | 29% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 10.39 6.46–14.31 5.37–15.40 | 13.51 9.95–17.08 8.99–18.04 | 23.90 16.42–31.39 14.37–33.44 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 7.11 4.17–10.05 3.34–10.88 | 8.73 6.05–11.41 5.31–12.14 | 15.84 10.21–21.46 8.65–23.03 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.07–4.83 0.52–5.37 | 4.13 2.47–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 7.07 3.54–10.61 2.50–11.64 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.14 1.93–6.36 1.36–6.93 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.81–7.88 | 9.49 5.28–13.70 4.17–14.81 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 42.40 35.61–49.19 33.94–50.86 | 57.46 50.67–64.24 49.00–65.91 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–479 | 510 443–576 426–594 | 904 770–1037 734–1073 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.27 77.24–85.30 75.95–86.59 | 87.32 83.00–91.64 81.69–92.95 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.89 10.06–15.73 9.30–16.49 | 12.55 9.60–15.49 8.85–16.24 | 25.44 19.66–31.22 18.16–32.73 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.82 0.19–3.12 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.83–3.46 | 1.78 0.65–2.90 0.36–3.20 | 3.92 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 13% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.71–4.58 1.32–4.97 | 2.60 1.05–4.16 0.62–4.59 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+