Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.202.61safe0.45–2.390.34–2.050.79–4.44safer0.20–2.640.11–2.280.31–4.92
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.564.068.62safe2.70–6.432.32–5.805.02–12.23safer2.21–6.921.85–6.274.06–13.18
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8211.1523.98safe8.90–16.757.59–14.7216.49–31.46safer7.81–17.846.63–15.6814.44–33.52
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.016.7415.75safe6.07–11.954.06–9.4210.13–21.38safer5.24–12.783.32–10.168.56–22.94
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.076.69safe1.74–5.501.42–4.723.16–10.23safer1.20–6.050.93–5.222.12–11.26
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.489.64safe2.94–7.372.48–6.485.43–13.85safer2.37–7.941.95–7.024.32–14.96
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction45.4454.09safe38.65–52.2347.30–60.87safer36.98–53.9045.63–62.54
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction414477890safe346–481410–543756–1024safer328–499393–561721–1060
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction81.9384.07safe77.90–85.9679.74–88.39safer76.61–87.2578.44–89.70
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4910.8624.34safe10.65–16.327.91–13.8018.56–30.13safer9.89–17.087.17–14.5517.06–31.63
Offsides
46%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.653.66safe0.85–3.170.56–2.741.41–5.91safer0.55–3.470.27–3.030.82–6.50
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.703.36safe0.61–2.710.57–2.831.18–5.54safer0.34–2.980.28–3.120.62–6.09
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.125.94safe1.38–4.251.57–4.682.94–8.93safer0.99–4.641.14–5.112.13–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 4.06 2.32–5.80 1.85–6.27 | 8.62 5.02–12.23 4.06–13.18 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 12.82 8.90–16.75 7.81–17.84 | 11.15 7.59–14.72 6.63–15.68 | 23.98 16.49–31.46 14.44–33.52 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.01 6.07–11.95 5.24–12.78 | 6.74 4.06–9.42 3.32–10.16 | 15.75 10.13–21.38 8.56–22.94 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.74–5.50 1.20–6.05 | 3.07 1.42–4.72 0.93–5.22 | 6.69 3.16–10.23 2.12–11.26 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.94–7.37 2.37–7.94 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.02 | 9.64 5.43–13.85 4.32–14.96 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 45.44 38.65–52.23 36.98–53.90 | 54.09 47.30–60.87 45.63–62.54 | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 414 346–481 328–499 | 477 410–543 393–561 | 890 756–1024 721–1060 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.93 77.90–85.96 76.61–87.25 | 84.07 79.74–88.39 78.44–89.70 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 13.49 10.65–16.32 9.89–17.08 | 10.86 7.91–13.80 7.17–14.55 | 24.34 18.56–30.13 17.06–31.63 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.65 0.56–2.74 0.27–3.03 | 3.66 1.41–5.91 0.82–6.50 | 46% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.98 | 1.70 0.57–2.83 0.28–3.12 | 3.36 1.18–5.54 0.62–6.09 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.12 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.11 | 5.94 2.94–8.93 2.13–9.74 | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.