Serie A·Regular Season - 33·
Serie A·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.042.76safe0.75–2.680.19–1.900.93–4.58safer0.49–2.930.00–2.130.45–5.06
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.183.328.50safe3.31–7.041.58–5.064.89–12.10safer2.82–7.531.11–5.533.93–13.06
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6810.1025.78safe11.75–19.606.54–13.6618.29–33.26safer10.66–20.695.58–14.6216.24–35.31
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.395.9716.35safe7.44–13.333.29–8.6510.73–21.98safer6.61–14.162.55–9.399.16–23.54
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.232.626.84safe2.34–6.110.96–4.273.31–10.38safer1.80–6.650.47–4.762.27–11.41
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.003.529.52safe3.78–8.211.52–5.525.31–13.73safer3.21–8.780.99–6.064.20–14.84
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.5041.64safe50.71–64.2934.85–48.42safer49.04–65.9633.18–50.10
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction517382899safe450–584315–448765–1032safer431–602298–466729–1068
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction77.6170.83safe73.58–81.6466.51–75.15safer72.28–82.9365.20–76.46
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9711.9924.95safe10.13–15.819.04–14.9319.17–30.74safer9.37–16.568.29–15.6817.67–32.24
Offsides
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.262.96safe0.53–2.850.17–2.360.70–5.21safer0.23–3.150.00–2.650.11–5.80
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.053.67safe0.57–2.660.92–3.181.49–5.85safer0.30–2.930.63–3.470.93–6.40
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
23%
15%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.676.03safe0.92–3.792.11–5.223.03–9.02safer0.53–4.181.69–5.652.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.75–2.68 0.49–2.93 | 1.04 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.45–5.06 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.18 3.31–7.04 2.82–7.53 | 3.32 1.58–5.06 1.11–5.53 | 8.50 4.89–12.10 3.93–13.06 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.68 11.75–19.60 10.66–20.69 | 10.10 6.54–13.66 5.58–14.62 | 25.78 18.29–33.26 16.24–35.31 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.39 7.44–13.33 6.61–14.16 | 5.97 3.29–8.65 2.55–9.39 | 16.35 10.73–21.98 9.16–23.54 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 2.34–6.11 1.80–6.65 | 2.62 0.96–4.27 0.47–4.76 | 6.84 3.31–10.38 2.27–11.41 | 66% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.78–8.21 3.21–8.78 | 3.52 1.52–5.52 0.99–6.06 | 9.52 5.31–13.73 4.20–14.84 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 57.50 50.71–64.29 49.04–65.96 | 41.64 34.85–48.42 33.18–50.10 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 517 450–584 431–602 | 382 315–448 298–466 | 899 765–1032 729–1068 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.61 73.58–81.64 72.28–82.93 | 70.83 66.51–75.15 65.20–76.46 | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 12.97 10.13–15.81 9.37–16.56 | 11.99 9.04–14.93 8.29–15.68 | 24.95 19.17–30.74 17.67–32.24 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.26 0.17–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 2.96 0.70–5.21 0.11–5.80 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.57–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.93–6.40 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.92–3.79 0.53–4.18 | 3.67 2.11–5.22 1.69–5.65 | 6.03 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 23% 15% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.