Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
20%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction0.972.103.07safe0.00–1.941.25–2.961.25–4.90safer0.00–2.191.02–3.190.77–5.38
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.946.1810.12safe2.08–5.804.43–7.926.51–13.72safer1.59–6.293.97–8.385.56–14.68
Total shots
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1016.6829.78safe9.17–17.0213.12–20.2522.30–37.27safer8.08–18.1212.16–21.2120.25–39.32
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1711.5719.74safe5.22–11.118.89–14.2514.11–25.36safer4.39–11.948.15–14.9912.55–26.93
Blocked shots
35%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.954.598.54safe2.07–5.832.94–6.245.01–12.08safer1.53–6.382.44–6.733.97–13.11
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.8010.41safe2.40–6.833.80–7.806.20–14.62safer1.83–7.403.26–8.335.09–15.73
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction38.2861.39safe31.49–45.0754.61–68.18safer29.82–46.7452.93–69.85
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction340546886safe273–407480–613753–1020safer255–425462–630717–1056
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction75.2585.27safe71.22–79.2780.95–89.60safer69.92–80.5779.64–90.90
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9710.9122.88safe9.13–14.817.97–13.8617.10–28.66safer8.37–15.567.22–14.6115.60–30.17
Offsides
59%
19%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.351.383.73safe1.19–3.510.28–2.471.47–5.98safer0.89–3.810.00–2.760.88–6.57
Yellow cards
43%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.603.39safe0.75–2.840.47–2.721.21–5.57safer0.48–3.110.18–3.020.66–6.13
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.032.786.81safe2.59–5.471.23–4.343.82–9.80safer2.21–5.850.80–4.763.01–10.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 2.10 1.25–2.96 1.02–3.19 | 3.07 1.25–4.90 0.77–5.38 | 16% 20% 63% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.80 1.59–6.29 | 6.18 4.43–7.92 3.97–8.38 | 10.12 6.51–13.72 5.56–14.68 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 13.10 9.17–17.02 8.08–18.12 | 16.68 13.12–20.25 12.16–21.21 | 29.78 22.30–37.27 20.25–39.32 | 23% 71% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.22–11.11 4.39–11.94 | 11.57 8.89–14.25 8.15–14.99 | 19.74 14.11–25.36 12.55–26.93 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.07–5.83 1.53–6.38 | 4.59 2.94–6.24 2.44–6.73 | 8.54 5.01–12.08 3.97–13.11 | 35% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.83 1.83–7.40 | 5.80 3.80–7.80 3.26–8.33 | 10.41 6.20–14.62 5.09–15.73 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 38.28 31.49–45.07 29.82–46.74 | 61.39 54.61–68.18 52.93–69.85 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 340 273–407 255–425 | 546 480–613 462–630 | 886 753–1020 717–1056 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.25 71.22–79.27 69.92–80.57 | 85.27 80.95–89.60 79.64–90.90 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.13–14.81 8.37–15.56 | 10.91 7.97–13.86 7.22–14.61 | 22.88 17.10–28.66 15.60–30.17 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.51 0.89–3.81 | 1.38 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.73 1.47–5.98 0.88–6.57 | 59% 19% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 1.60 0.47–2.72 0.18–3.02 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 43% 23% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 4.03 2.59–5.47 2.21–5.85 | 2.78 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 6.81 3.82–9.80 3.01–10.62 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.