Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
17%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.042.493.53safe0.07–2.011.64–3.341.71–5.35safer0.00–2.261.41–3.571.23–5.83
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.847.0710.90safe1.98–5.705.32–8.817.30–14.51safer1.49–6.194.86–9.276.34–15.46
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6717.8828.55safe6.74–14.5914.32–21.4421.06–36.04safer5.65–15.6913.36–22.4019.01–38.09
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction7.0611.7218.78safe4.12–10.009.04–14.4013.16–24.41safer3.29–10.838.31–15.1411.59–25.97
Blocked shots
15%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction2.614.897.50safe0.73–4.503.24–6.543.97–11.04safer0.19–5.042.74–7.032.93–12.07
Corners
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.816.3510.16safe1.60–6.024.35–8.355.95–14.38safer1.02–6.603.82–8.894.84–15.49
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.8860.70safe33.09–46.6753.91–67.48safer31.42–48.3452.24–69.16
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction369558927safe302–436492–625793–1061safer283–454474–642758–1097
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction77.0385.41safe73.00–81.0681.08–89.73safer71.71–82.3579.77–91.04
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9911.2822.27safe8.16–13.838.33–14.2216.49–28.05safer7.40–14.597.59–14.9714.99–29.56
Offsides
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.315.42safe1.95–4.271.21–3.403.16–7.67safer1.65–4.570.93–3.692.57–8.26
Yellow cards
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.683.78safe1.06–3.160.55–2.811.61–5.96safer0.79–3.420.26–3.101.05–6.52
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.260.00–0.55safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.542.577.10safe3.10–5.971.01–4.124.11–10.10safer2.71–6.360.59–4.553.30–10.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 2.49 1.64–3.34 1.41–3.57 | 3.53 1.71–5.35 1.23–5.83 | 14% 17% 69% |
| Shots on target | 3.84 1.98–5.70 1.49–6.19 | 7.07 5.32–8.81 4.86–9.27 | 10.90 7.30–14.51 6.34–15.46 | 80% |
| Total shots | 10.67 6.74–14.59 5.65–15.69 | 17.88 14.32–21.44 13.36–22.40 | 28.55 21.06–36.04 19.01–38.09 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 7.06 4.12–10.00 3.29–10.83 | 11.72 9.04–14.40 8.31–15.14 | 18.78 13.16–24.41 11.59–25.97 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.61 0.73–4.50 0.19–5.04 | 4.89 3.24–6.54 2.74–7.03 | 7.50 3.97–11.04 2.93–12.07 | 15% 74% |
| Corners | 3.81 1.60–6.02 1.02–6.60 | 6.35 4.35–8.35 3.82–8.89 | 10.16 5.95–14.38 4.84–15.49 | 17% 74% |
| Possession % | 39.88 33.09–46.67 31.42–48.34 | 60.70 53.91–67.48 52.24–69.16 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 283–454 | 558 492–625 474–642 | 927 793–1061 758–1097 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.03 73.00–81.06 71.71–82.35 | 85.41 81.08–89.73 79.77–91.04 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.16–13.83 7.40–14.59 | 11.28 8.33–14.22 7.59–14.97 | 22.27 16.49–28.05 14.99–29.56 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 3.11 1.95–4.27 1.65–4.57 | 2.31 1.21–3.40 0.93–3.69 | 5.42 3.16–7.67 2.57–8.26 | 55% 17% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.79–3.42 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.78 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 4.54 3.10–5.97 2.71–6.36 | 2.57 1.01–4.12 0.59–4.55 | 7.10 4.11–10.10 3.30–10.91 | 71% 17% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.