Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.392.74safe0.38–2.320.53–2.240.92–4.56safer0.13–2.570.31–2.470.44–5.04
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.309.36safe3.20–6.932.56–6.045.76–12.97safer2.71–7.422.09–6.514.80–13.92
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1112.8628.97safe12.18–20.039.30–16.4221.48–36.45safer11.09–21.138.34–17.3819.43–38.51
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.008.3918.39safe7.06–12.955.71–11.0712.77–24.01safer6.23–13.774.97–11.8111.20–25.58
Blocked shots
58%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.658.42safe2.89–6.652.00–5.314.89–11.96safer2.35–7.201.51–5.803.85–12.99
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.3610.06safe3.48–7.912.36–6.365.84–14.27safer2.91–8.481.83–6.904.74–15.38
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.7653.14safe40.97–54.5546.35–59.92safer39.30–56.2244.68–61.59
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction405467871safe337–472400–533738–1005safer319–490383–551702–1041
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction78.4481.11safe74.42–82.4776.78–85.43safer73.12–83.7775.47–86.74
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2312.1224.35safe9.39–15.079.18–15.0718.57–30.14safer8.64–15.838.43–15.8217.07–31.64
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.703.23safe0.37–2.690.61–2.800.98–5.49safer0.07–2.990.32–3.080.39–6.08
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.943.47safe0.49–2.580.81–3.071.30–5.65safer0.22–2.850.52–3.360.74–6.21
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
32%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.285.96safe1.25–4.121.72–4.832.97–8.95safer0.86–4.511.30–5.262.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.31–2.47 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.06 3.20–6.93 2.71–7.42 | 4.30 2.56–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 9.36 5.76–12.97 4.80–13.92 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 16.11 12.18–20.03 11.09–21.13 | 12.86 9.30–16.42 8.34–17.38 | 28.97 21.48–36.45 19.43–38.51 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 10.00 7.06–12.95 6.23–13.77 | 8.39 5.71–11.07 4.97–11.81 | 18.39 12.77–24.01 11.20–25.58 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.77 2.89–6.65 2.35–7.20 | 3.65 2.00–5.31 1.51–5.80 | 8.42 4.89–11.96 3.85–12.99 | 58% 13% 29% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.83–6.90 | 10.06 5.84–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 47.76 40.97–54.55 39.30–56.22 | 53.14 46.35–59.92 44.68–61.59 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 405 337–472 319–490 | 467 400–533 383–551 | 871 738–1005 702–1041 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.44 74.42–82.47 73.12–83.77 | 81.11 76.78–85.43 75.47–86.74 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 12.23 9.39–15.07 8.64–15.83 | 12.12 9.18–15.07 8.43–15.82 | 24.35 18.57–30.14 17.07–31.64 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 3.23 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.30–5.26 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 32% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.