Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.202.72safe0.56–2.490.34–2.050.90–4.54safer0.30–2.740.11–2.280.42–5.02
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.249.17safe3.07–6.802.49–5.985.57–12.78safer2.59–7.292.03–6.444.61–13.73
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3511.7226.07safe10.42–18.278.16–15.2818.58–33.55safer9.33–19.367.20–16.2416.53–35.60
Shots in box
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.517.5617.07safe6.56–12.454.88–10.2411.45–22.69safer5.74–13.284.14–10.989.88–24.26
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.136.83safe1.82–5.581.48–4.793.30–10.37safer1.27–6.130.99–5.282.26–11.41
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.839.85safe2.80–7.232.83–6.835.64–14.06safer2.23–7.802.30–7.374.53–15.17
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction43.9456.14safe37.15–50.7349.35–62.92safer35.48–52.4047.68–64.59
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction382463844safe315–449396–529711–978safer296–467379–547675–1014
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction81.0883.84safe77.05–85.1179.52–88.17safer75.76–86.4178.21–89.48
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4112.2625.68safe10.58–16.259.32–15.2119.90–31.46safer9.82–17.018.57–15.9618.39–32.96
Offsides
68%
17%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.531.133.67safe1.37–3.700.04–2.231.41–5.92safer1.07–4.000.00–2.510.82–6.51
Yellow cards
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.563.03safe0.42–2.520.43–2.690.85–5.21safer0.15–2.780.14–2.980.29–5.77
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.456.42safe1.53–4.401.89–5.003.43–9.41safer1.15–4.791.47–5.432.61–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.94 3.07–6.80 2.59–7.29 | 4.24 2.49–5.98 2.03–6.44 | 9.17 5.57–12.78 4.61–13.73 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 11.72 8.16–15.28 7.20–16.24 | 26.07 18.58–33.55 16.53–35.60 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.56–12.45 5.74–13.28 | 7.56 4.88–10.24 4.14–10.98 | 17.07 11.45–22.69 9.88–24.26 | 64% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.82–5.58 1.27–6.13 | 3.13 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 6.83 3.30–10.37 2.26–11.41 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.80–7.23 2.23–7.80 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.37 | 9.85 5.64–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 43.94 37.15–50.73 35.48–52.40 | 56.14 49.35–62.92 47.68–64.59 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 382 315–449 296–467 | 463 396–529 379–547 | 844 711–978 675–1014 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.08 77.05–85.11 75.76–86.41 | 83.84 79.52–88.17 78.21–89.48 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 13.41 10.58–16.25 9.82–17.01 | 12.26 9.32–15.21 8.57–15.96 | 25.68 19.90–31.46 18.39–32.96 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.53 1.37–3.70 1.07–4.00 | 1.13 0.04–2.23 0.00–2.51 | 3.67 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 68% 17% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.52 0.15–2.78 | 1.56 0.43–2.69 0.14–2.98 | 3.03 0.85–5.21 0.29–5.77 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.53–4.40 1.15–4.79 | 3.45 1.89–5.00 1.47–5.43 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.61–10.22 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.