Eredivisie·Regular Season - 3·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Erwin Blank · Netherlands
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.212.88safe0.71–2.640.35–2.071.06–4.71safer0.45–2.900.10–2.310.55–5.21actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.623.509.12safe3.76–7.471.80–5.215.56–12.68safer3.26–7.971.33–5.684.59–13.65actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.349.6025.94safe12.64–20.056.22–12.9818.86–33.02safer11.61–21.085.29–13.9116.90–34.98actual11.0014.0025.00
Shots in box
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.376.8617.22safe7.85–12.884.56–9.1612.41–22.04safer6.98–13.753.76–9.9610.74–23.70actual8.007.0015.00
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.676.85safe2.59–5.761.26–4.093.85–9.85safer2.05–6.290.77–4.572.83–10.87actual3.004.007.00
Corners
68%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.944.009.93safe3.73–8.142.02–5.975.75–14.12safer3.14–8.741.48–6.514.62–15.25actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.7844.43safe49.46–62.1038.11–50.75safer47.87–63.6936.51–52.34actual69.0031.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction489394883safe424–555330–459753–1013safer406–572312–476718–1048actual677298975
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction80.8075.12safe76.59–85.0270.61–79.63safer75.28–86.3269.28–80.96actual86.0071.00
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3512.4422.80safe7.50–13.219.50–15.3917.00–28.60safer6.61–14.108.58–16.3115.19–30.40actual5.0016.0021.00
Offsides
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.322.81safe0.29–2.710.15–2.480.44–5.19safer0.00–3.050.00–2.810.00–5.86actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.943.33safe0.34–2.450.82–3.061.16–5.51safer0.06–2.720.53–3.350.59–6.07actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.415.92safe1.10–3.931.86–4.962.95–8.89safer0.71–4.311.42–5.402.13–9.71actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.90 | 2.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.31 | 2.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.71 0.55–5.21 | 4.00 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.62 3.76–7.47 3.26–7.97 | 3.00 | 3.50 1.80–5.21 1.33–5.68 | 5.00 | 9.12 5.56–12.68 4.59–13.65 | 8.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.34 12.64–20.05 11.61–21.08 | 11.00 | 9.60 6.22–12.98 5.29–13.91 | 14.00 | 25.94 18.86–33.02 16.90–34.98 | 25.00 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 10.37 7.85–12.88 6.98–13.75 | 8.00 | 6.86 4.56–9.16 3.76–9.96 | 7.00 | 17.22 12.41–22.04 10.74–23.70 | 15.00 | 77% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.59–5.76 2.05–6.29 | 3.00 | 2.67 1.26–4.09 0.77–4.57 | 4.00 | 6.85 3.85–9.85 2.83–10.87 | 7.00 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.73–8.14 3.14–8.74 | 2.00 | 4.00 2.02–5.97 1.48–6.51 | 4.00 | 9.93 5.75–14.12 4.62–15.25 | 6.00 | 68% 22% |
| Possession % | 55.78 49.46–62.10 47.87–63.69 | 69.00 | 44.43 38.11–50.75 36.51–52.34 | 31.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 489 424–555 406–572 | 677 | 394 330–459 312–476 | 298 | 883 753–1013 718–1048 | 975 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.80 76.59–85.02 75.28–86.32 | 86.00 | 75.12 70.61–79.63 69.28–80.96 | 71.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 10.35 7.50–13.21 6.61–14.10 | 5.00 | 12.44 9.50–15.39 8.58–16.31 | 16.00 | 22.80 17.00–28.60 15.19–30.40 | 21.00 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.71 0.00–3.05 | 3.00 | 1.32 0.15–2.48 0.00–2.81 | 0.00 | 2.81 0.44–5.19 0.00–5.86 | 3.00 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.34–2.45 0.06–2.72 | 1.00 | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | 3.00 | 3.33 1.16–5.51 0.59–6.07 | 4.00 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.71–4.31 | 3.00 | 3.41 1.86–4.96 1.42–5.40 | 1.00 | 5.92 2.95–8.89 2.13–9.71 | 4.00 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.