Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Richard Martens · Netherlands
Goals
81%
homeawaytotalprediction3.020.823.84safe2.06–3.990.00–1.682.02–5.66safer1.80–4.250.00–1.921.51–6.17actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
95%
homeawaytotalprediction6.621.588.21safe4.77–8.480.00–3.294.64–11.77safer4.27–8.980.00–3.763.68–12.74actual8.002.0010.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction18.825.6624.47safe15.11–22.522.28–9.0417.39–31.56safer14.08–23.551.35–9.9715.43–33.52actual22.003.0025.00
Shots in box
99%
homeawaytotalprediction15.374.7520.12safe12.85–17.882.45–7.0615.30–24.94safer11.98–18.751.66–7.8513.64–26.60actual15.003.0018.00
Blocked shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.172.138.30safe4.59–7.760.72–3.545.30–11.30safer4.05–8.290.23–4.034.28–12.32actual5.000.005.00
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.102.979.07safe3.89–8.310.99–4.954.89–13.25safer3.30–8.900.45–5.493.75–14.39actual9.002.0011.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.5835.47safe58.26–70.9029.15–41.79safer56.67–72.4927.55–43.38actual63.0037.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction589332921safe524–655267–396791–1051safer507–672250–414756–1086actual613368981
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction87.4274.02safe83.20–91.6369.52–78.53safer81.90–92.9368.19–79.86
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4412.7924.23safe8.58–14.309.84–15.7418.43–30.03safer7.70–15.188.93–16.6516.62–31.84actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.463.36safe0.69–3.110.30–2.620.98–5.73safer0.34–3.450.00–2.960.31–6.41actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
23%
23%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.862.99safe0.07–2.190.74–2.980.82–5.17safer0.00–2.460.45–3.270.26–5.73actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
93%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.050.07safe0.00–0.180.00–0.240.00–0.42safer0.00–0.330.00–0.380.00–0.71actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
17%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.863.475.33safe0.45–3.281.92–5.032.36–8.30safer0.06–3.661.49–5.461.54–9.12actual2.007.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.02 2.06–3.99 1.80–4.25 | 1.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.92 | 0.00 | 3.84 2.02–5.66 1.51–6.17 | 1.00 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 6.62 4.77–8.48 4.27–8.98 | 8.00 | 1.58 0.00–3.29 0.00–3.76 | 2.00 | 8.21 4.64–11.77 3.68–12.74 | 10.00 | 95% |
| Total shots | 18.82 15.11–22.52 14.08–23.55 | 22.00 | 5.66 2.28–9.04 1.35–9.97 | 3.00 | 24.47 17.39–31.56 15.43–33.52 | 25.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 15.37 12.85–17.88 11.98–18.75 | 15.00 | 4.75 2.45–7.06 1.66–7.85 | 3.00 | 20.12 15.30–24.94 13.64–26.60 | 18.00 | 99% |
| Blocked shots | 6.17 4.59–7.76 4.05–8.29 | 5.00 | 2.13 0.72–3.54 0.23–4.03 | 0.00 | 8.30 5.30–11.30 4.28–12.32 | 5.00 | 90% |
| Corners | 6.10 3.89–8.31 3.30–8.90 | 9.00 | 2.97 0.99–4.95 0.45–5.49 | 2.00 | 9.07 4.89–13.25 3.75–14.39 | 11.00 | 81% |
| Possession % | 64.58 58.26–70.90 56.67–72.49 | 63.00 | 35.47 29.15–41.79 27.55–43.38 | 37.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 589 524–655 507–672 | 613 | 332 267–396 250–414 | 368 | 921 791–1051 756–1086 | 981 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.42 83.20–91.63 81.90–92.93 | — | 74.02 69.52–78.53 68.19–79.86 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.58–14.30 7.70–15.18 | 10.00 | 12.79 9.84–15.74 8.93–16.65 | 11.00 | 24.23 18.43–30.03 16.62–31.84 | 21.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.34–3.45 | 1.00 | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.96 | 1.00 | 3.36 0.98–5.73 0.31–6.41 | 2.00 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.13 0.07–2.19 0.00–2.46 | 1.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 3.00 | 2.99 0.82–5.17 0.26–5.73 | 4.00 | 23% 23% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.42 0.00–0.71 | 0.00 | 93% |
| GK saves | 1.86 0.45–3.28 0.06–3.66 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 7.00 | 5.33 2.36–8.30 1.54–9.12 | 9.00 | 17% 14% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.