Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Allard Lindhout · Netherlands
Goals
80%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.730.703.43safe1.77–3.690.00–1.561.61–5.26safer1.51–3.950.00–1.811.10–5.76actual5.001.006.00
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction7.843.2211.06safe5.98–9.701.51–4.927.49–14.62safer5.49–10.201.04–5.396.53–15.59actual13.004.0017.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction20.108.5128.61safe16.40–23.805.13–11.8821.52–35.69safer15.37–24.844.20–12.8119.56–37.65actual32.0010.0042.00
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction14.015.4419.45safe11.49–16.523.14–7.7414.63–24.26safer10.63–17.392.34–8.5412.97–25.92actual25.007.0032.00
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.232.267.49safe3.64–6.810.85–3.684.49–10.49safer3.11–7.350.36–4.163.47–11.51actual9.002.0011.00
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.853.0710.91safe5.64–10.051.09–5.056.73–15.10safer5.05–10.650.55–5.585.60–16.23actual14.002.0016.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction65.3434.38safe59.02–71.6628.06–40.70safer57.43–73.2526.46–42.30actual69.0031.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction624332956safe559–690267–396826–1086safer541–707250–414791–1121actual7463261072
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction84.1664.51safe79.94–88.3760.00–69.02safer78.64–89.6758.67–70.35
Fouls
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.5910.2017.79safe4.73–10.457.25–13.1411.98–23.59safer3.85–11.336.33–14.0610.18–25.39actual6.003.009.00
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.503.22safe0.51–2.930.33–2.660.85–5.59safer0.17–3.270.00–2.990.17–6.27actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
23%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.762.83safe0.01–2.120.64–2.880.65–5.01safer0.00–2.390.35–3.170.09–5.57actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.190.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
13%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction2.424.837.25safe1.01–3.843.28–6.394.29–10.22safer0.62–4.232.85–6.823.46–11.04actual3.008.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.73 1.77–3.69 1.51–3.95 | 5.00 | 0.70 0.00–1.56 0.00–1.81 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.61–5.26 1.10–5.76 | 6.00 | 80% 13% |
| Shots on target | 7.84 5.98–9.70 5.49–10.20 | 13.00 | 3.22 1.51–4.92 1.04–5.39 | 4.00 | 11.06 7.49–14.62 6.53–15.59 | 17.00 | 90% |
| Total shots | 20.10 16.40–23.80 15.37–24.84 | 32.00 | 8.51 5.13–11.88 4.20–12.81 | 10.00 | 28.61 21.52–35.69 19.56–37.65 | 42.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 14.01 11.49–16.52 10.63–17.39 | 25.00 | 5.44 3.14–7.74 2.34–8.54 | 7.00 | 19.45 14.63–24.26 12.97–25.92 | 32.00 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 5.23 3.64–6.81 3.11–7.35 | 9.00 | 2.26 0.85–3.68 0.36–4.16 | 2.00 | 7.49 4.49–10.49 3.47–11.51 | 11.00 | 82% |
| Corners | 7.85 5.64–10.05 5.05–10.65 | 14.00 | 3.07 1.09–5.05 0.55–5.58 | 2.00 | 10.91 6.73–15.10 5.60–16.23 | 16.00 | 91% |
| Possession % | 65.34 59.02–71.66 57.43–73.25 | 69.00 | 34.38 28.06–40.70 26.46–42.30 | 31.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 624 559–690 541–707 | 746 | 332 267–396 250–414 | 326 | 956 826–1086 791–1121 | 1072 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.16 79.94–88.37 78.64–89.67 | — | 64.51 60.00–69.02 58.67–70.35 | — | — | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 7.59 4.73–10.45 3.85–11.33 | 6.00 | 10.20 7.25–13.14 6.33–14.06 | 3.00 | 17.79 11.98–23.59 10.18–25.39 | 9.00 | 23% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.51–2.93 0.17–3.27 | 3.00 | 1.50 0.33–2.66 0.00–2.99 | 4.00 | 3.22 0.85–5.59 0.17–6.27 | 7.00 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.07 0.01–2.12 0.00–2.39 | 0.00 | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | 0.00 | 2.83 0.65–5.01 0.09–5.57 | 0.00 | 23% 23% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.01–3.84 0.62–4.23 | 3.00 | 4.83 3.28–6.39 2.85–6.82 | 8.00 | 7.25 4.29–10.22 3.46–11.04 | 11.00 | 13% 76% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.