Eredivisie·Regular Season - 5·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Martin Van den Kerkhof · Netherlands
Goals
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.773.25safe0.52–2.440.91–2.631.43–5.08safer0.26–2.700.67–2.880.93–5.58actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.115.3710.48safe3.25–6.973.66–7.086.92–14.04safer2.75–7.473.19–7.555.95–15.01actual6.007.0013.00
Total shots
60%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2014.3630.56safe12.50–19.9110.98–17.7423.48–37.65safer11.47–20.9410.05–18.6721.52–39.61actual19.0013.0032.00
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.648.9518.59safe7.12–12.156.65–11.2513.77–23.41safer6.26–13.025.85–12.0512.11–25.07actual14.0010.0024.00
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.953.797.74safe2.37–5.542.37–5.204.74–10.74safer1.84–6.071.89–5.693.72–11.76actual8.004.0012.00
Corners
43%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.555.6011.14safe3.34–7.753.62–7.576.96–15.33safer2.75–8.353.08–8.115.83–16.46actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.8353.58safe41.51–54.1547.26–59.90safer39.91–55.7445.67–61.50actual41.0059.00
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction391461853safe326–457397–526723–982safer308–474379–543687–1018actual451422873
Pass accuracy %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction79.2482.13safe75.02–83.4577.62–86.64safer73.72–84.7576.29–87.97
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.289.5120.79safe8.43–14.146.56–12.4514.99–26.60safer7.54–15.035.65–13.3713.19–28.40actual16.008.0024.00
Offsides
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.092.62safe0.33–2.750.00–2.250.25–5.00safer0.00–3.090.00–2.580.00–5.67actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.473.25safe0.73–2.840.35–2.591.07–5.43safer0.46–3.110.06–2.880.51–5.99actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.553.236.78safe2.13–4.961.68–4.793.81–9.75safer1.74–5.351.25–5.222.99–10.57actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.44 0.26–2.70 | 3.00 | 1.77 0.91–2.63 0.67–2.88 | 3.00 | 3.25 1.43–5.08 0.93–5.58 | 6.00 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.97 2.75–7.47 | 6.00 | 5.37 3.66–7.08 3.19–7.55 | 7.00 | 10.48 6.92–14.04 5.95–15.01 | 13.00 | 41% 47% |
| Total shots | 16.20 12.50–19.91 11.47–20.94 | 19.00 | 14.36 10.98–17.74 10.05–18.67 | 13.00 | 30.56 23.48–37.65 21.52–39.61 | 32.00 | 60% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.64 7.12–12.15 6.26–13.02 | 14.00 | 8.95 6.65–11.25 5.85–12.05 | 10.00 | 18.59 13.77–23.41 12.11–25.07 | 24.00 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.37–5.54 1.84–6.07 | 8.00 | 3.79 2.37–5.20 1.89–5.69 | 4.00 | 7.74 4.74–10.74 3.72–11.76 | 12.00 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.34–7.75 2.75–8.35 | 7.00 | 5.60 3.62–7.57 3.08–8.11 | 5.00 | 11.14 6.96–15.33 5.83–16.46 | 12.00 | 43% 45% |
| Possession % | 47.83 41.51–54.15 39.91–55.74 | 41.00 | 53.58 47.26–59.90 45.67–61.50 | 59.00 | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 391 326–457 308–474 | 451 | 461 397–526 379–543 | 422 | 853 723–982 687–1018 | 873 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.24 75.02–83.45 73.72–84.75 | — | 82.13 77.62–86.64 76.29–87.97 | — | — | — | 34% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.43–14.14 7.54–15.03 | 16.00 | 9.51 6.56–12.45 5.65–13.37 | 8.00 | 20.79 14.99–26.60 13.19–28.40 | 24.00 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.33–2.75 0.00–3.09 | 0.00 | 1.09 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.58 | 1.00 | 2.62 0.25–5.00 0.00–5.67 | 1.00 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.84 0.46–3.11 | 2.00 | 1.47 0.35–2.59 0.06–2.88 | 1.00 | 3.25 1.07–5.43 0.51–5.99 | 3.00 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.55 2.13–4.96 1.74–5.35 | 4.00 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.22 | 4.00 | 6.78 3.81–9.75 2.99–10.57 | 8.00 | 47% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+