Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Martin Van den Kerkhof · Netherlands
Goals
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.440.753.19safe1.48–3.410.00–1.611.37–5.01safer1.22–3.670.00–1.850.86–5.52actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.402.989.37safe4.54–8.251.27–4.685.81–12.94safer4.04–8.750.80–5.154.84–13.90actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction17.899.1227.01safe14.18–21.595.74–12.5019.93–34.09safer13.15–22.624.81–13.4317.96–36.05actual22.008.0030.00
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction14.165.2719.43safe11.64–16.682.96–7.5714.61–24.24safer10.78–17.542.17–8.3612.95–25.91actual16.006.0022.00
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.392.497.87safe3.80–6.971.07–3.904.88–10.87safer3.27–7.500.59–4.393.86–11.89actual2.003.005.00
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.293.2710.56safe5.08–9.491.29–5.256.38–14.74safer4.49–10.090.76–5.795.24–15.88actual11.002.0013.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction62.5938.01safe56.27–68.9131.69–44.33safer54.67–70.5030.10–45.93actual67.0033.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction560349909safe495–626284–414779–1039safer477–643267–431744–1074actual6773411018
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction85.7574.41safe81.54–89.9769.90–78.92safer80.24–91.2768.57–80.25
Fouls
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1612.5421.70safe6.30–12.029.60–15.4915.90–27.51safer5.42–12.908.68–16.4114.10–29.31actual7.008.0015.00
Offsides
53%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.092.87safe0.56–2.980.00–2.260.50–5.24safer0.22–3.330.00–2.590.00–5.92actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
23%
22%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.212.013.22safe0.16–2.270.88–3.131.04–5.39safer0.00–2.540.59–3.420.48–5.96actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.294.246.53safe0.87–3.702.69–5.803.56–9.49safer0.48–4.092.26–6.232.74–10.32actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.48–3.41 1.22–3.67 | 1.00 | 0.75 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.85 | 1.00 | 3.19 1.37–5.01 0.86–5.52 | 2.00 | 75% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.40 4.54–8.25 4.04–8.75 | 5.00 | 2.98 1.27–4.68 0.80–5.15 | 2.00 | 9.37 5.81–12.94 4.84–13.90 | 7.00 | 83% |
| Total shots | 17.89 14.18–21.59 13.15–22.62 | 22.00 | 9.12 5.74–12.50 4.81–13.43 | 8.00 | 27.01 19.93–34.09 17.96–36.05 | 30.00 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 14.16 11.64–16.68 10.78–17.54 | 16.00 | 5.27 2.96–7.57 2.17–8.36 | 6.00 | 19.43 14.61–24.24 12.95–25.91 | 22.00 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 5.39 3.80–6.97 3.27–7.50 | 2.00 | 2.49 1.07–3.90 0.59–4.39 | 3.00 | 7.87 4.88–10.87 3.86–11.89 | 5.00 | 81% |
| Corners | 7.29 5.08–9.49 4.49–10.09 | 11.00 | 3.27 1.29–5.25 0.76–5.79 | 2.00 | 10.56 6.38–14.74 5.24–15.88 | 13.00 | 86% |
| Possession % | 62.59 56.27–68.91 54.67–70.50 | 67.00 | 38.01 31.69–44.33 30.10–45.93 | 33.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 560 495–626 477–643 | 677 | 349 284–414 267–431 | 341 | 909 779–1039 744–1074 | 1018 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.75 81.54–89.97 80.24–91.27 | — | 74.41 69.90–78.92 68.57–80.25 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.16 6.30–12.02 5.42–12.90 | 7.00 | 12.54 9.60–15.49 8.68–16.41 | 8.00 | 21.70 15.90–27.51 14.10–29.31 | 15.00 | 20% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.56–2.98 0.22–3.33 | 1.00 | 1.09 0.00–2.26 0.00–2.59 | 1.00 | 2.87 0.50–5.24 0.00–5.92 | 2.00 | 53% 23% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.21 0.16–2.27 0.00–2.54 | 0.00 | 2.01 0.88–3.13 0.59–3.42 | 1.00 | 3.22 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.96 | 1.00 | 23% 22% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.87–3.70 0.48–4.09 | 1.00 | 4.24 2.69–5.80 2.26–6.23 | 4.00 | 6.53 3.56–9.49 2.74–10.32 | 5.00 | 16% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.