Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jannick van der Laan · Netherlands
Goals
84%
homeawaytotalprediction3.050.683.73safe2.09–4.020.00–1.541.91–5.55safer1.83–4.280.00–1.781.40–6.06actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.071.9310.01safe6.22–9.930.23–3.646.44–13.57safer5.72–10.430.00–4.115.48–14.54actual12.005.0017.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction23.106.7029.80safe19.39–26.803.32–10.0822.71–36.88safer18.36–27.832.39–11.0120.75–38.84actual24.0011.0035.00
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction16.174.2720.44safe13.65–18.681.97–6.5715.62–25.26safer12.79–19.551.17–7.3713.96–26.92actual18.005.0023.00
Blocked shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction6.191.978.16safe4.60–7.770.56–3.395.16–11.16safer4.07–8.310.07–3.884.14–12.18actual5.003.008.00
Corners
95%
homeawaytotalprediction8.352.5710.93safe6.15–10.560.59–4.556.74–15.11safer5.55–11.150.06–5.095.61–16.24actual12.002.0014.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction65.9935.25safe59.67–72.3028.93–41.57safer58.07–73.9027.34–43.17actual61.0039.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction617346963safe551–682282–411833–1093safer534–700264–428798–1128actual551353904
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction86.4673.75safe82.24–90.6769.24–78.25safer80.94–91.9767.91–79.58
Fouls
24%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction7.029.3916.41safe4.16–9.876.45–12.3410.60–22.21safer3.27–10.765.53–13.258.80–24.01actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.173.02safe0.64–3.060.01–2.330.65–5.40safer0.30–3.410.00–2.670.00–6.07actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
24%
23%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.812.95safe0.08–2.190.69–2.930.77–5.12safer0.00–2.470.40–3.220.21–5.68actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.100.12safe0.00–0.180.00–0.290.00–0.47safer0.00–0.330.00–0.430.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
90%
homeawaytotalprediction1.445.126.56safe0.02–2.853.57–6.683.59–9.53safer0.00–3.243.14–7.112.77–10.35actual5.0010.0015.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.05 2.09–4.02 1.83–4.28 | 2.00 | 0.68 0.00–1.54 0.00–1.78 | 0.00 | 3.73 1.91–5.55 1.40–6.06 | 2.00 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 8.07 6.22–9.93 5.72–10.43 | 12.00 | 1.93 0.23–3.64 0.00–4.11 | 5.00 | 10.01 6.44–13.57 5.48–14.54 | 17.00 | 97% |
| Total shots | 23.10 19.39–26.80 18.36–27.83 | 24.00 | 6.70 3.32–10.08 2.39–11.01 | 11.00 | 29.80 22.71–36.88 20.75–38.84 | 35.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 16.17 13.65–18.68 12.79–19.55 | 18.00 | 4.27 1.97–6.57 1.17–7.37 | 5.00 | 20.44 15.62–25.26 13.96–26.92 | 23.00 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 6.19 4.60–7.77 4.07–8.31 | 5.00 | 1.97 0.56–3.39 0.07–3.88 | 3.00 | 8.16 5.16–11.16 4.14–12.18 | 8.00 | 91% |
| Corners | 8.35 6.15–10.56 5.55–11.15 | 12.00 | 2.57 0.59–4.55 0.06–5.09 | 2.00 | 10.93 6.74–15.11 5.61–16.24 | 14.00 | 95% |
| Possession % | 65.99 59.67–72.30 58.07–73.90 | 61.00 | 35.25 28.93–41.57 27.34–43.17 | 39.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 617 551–682 534–700 | 551 | 346 282–411 264–428 | 353 | 963 833–1093 798–1128 | 904 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.46 82.24–90.67 80.94–91.97 | — | 73.75 69.24–78.25 67.91–79.58 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 7.02 4.16–9.87 3.27–10.76 | 10.00 | 9.39 6.45–12.34 5.53–13.25 | 11.00 | 16.41 10.60–22.21 8.80–24.01 | 21.00 | 24% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.30–3.41 | 2.00 | 1.17 0.01–2.33 0.00–2.67 | 3.00 | 3.02 0.65–5.40 0.00–6.07 | 5.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.14 0.08–2.19 0.00–2.47 | 1.00 | 1.81 0.69–2.93 0.40–3.22 | 3.00 | 2.95 0.77–5.12 0.21–5.68 | 4.00 | 24% 23% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.44 0.02–2.85 0.00–3.24 | 5.00 | 5.12 3.57–6.68 3.14–7.11 | 10.00 | 6.56 3.59–9.53 2.77–10.35 | 15.00 | 90% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+