Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Dennis Higler · Netherlands
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.363.03safe0.71–2.640.50–2.221.21–4.85safer0.45–2.900.25–2.460.70–5.36actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.8410.24safe3.55–7.263.13–6.556.68–13.80safer3.05–7.762.66–7.015.71–14.77actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4413.8428.29safe10.74–18.1510.47–17.2221.21–35.37safer9.71–19.189.54–18.1519.24–37.33actual25.004.0029.00
Shots in box
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction10.948.8319.77safe8.43–13.466.53–11.1314.96–24.59safer7.56–14.325.73–11.9313.29–26.25actual19.002.0021.00
Blocked shots
46%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.023.767.78safe2.44–5.612.35–5.174.78–10.78safer1.90–6.141.86–5.663.76–11.80actual6.000.006.00
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.4910.13safe3.44–7.852.51–6.475.95–14.32safer2.85–8.451.97–7.004.82–15.45actual9.000.009.00
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction53.1147.35safe46.79–59.4341.03–53.67safer45.20–61.0239.43–55.26actual61.0039.00
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction431391823safe366–496327–456693–953safer348–514309–474658–988actual584395979
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction75.3075.66safe71.08–79.5171.15–80.16safer69.78–80.8169.82–81.50
Fouls
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.149.7517.89safe5.28–11.006.80–12.6912.09–23.69safer4.40–11.885.89–13.6110.28–25.49actual8.0010.0018.00
Offsides
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.282.66safe0.16–2.580.12–2.450.29–5.03safer0.00–2.930.00–2.780.00–5.71actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.833.15safe0.26–2.370.71–2.950.97–5.32safer0.00–2.650.42–3.240.41–5.88actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.236.53safe1.88–4.711.68–4.783.56–9.49safer1.49–5.101.25–5.222.74–10.32actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.90 | 1.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.25–2.46 | 1.00 | 3.03 1.21–4.85 0.70–5.36 | 2.00 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.40 3.55–7.26 3.05–7.76 | 6.00 | 4.84 3.13–6.55 2.66–7.01 | 2.00 | 10.24 6.68–13.80 5.71–14.77 | 8.00 | 51% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.44 10.74–18.15 9.71–19.18 | 25.00 | 13.84 10.47–17.22 9.54–18.15 | 4.00 | 28.29 21.21–35.37 19.24–37.33 | 29.00 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 10.94 8.43–13.46 7.56–14.32 | 19.00 | 8.83 6.53–11.13 5.73–11.93 | 2.00 | 19.77 14.96–24.59 13.29–26.25 | 21.00 | 64% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.44–5.61 1.90–6.14 | 6.00 | 3.76 2.35–5.17 1.86–5.66 | 0.00 | 7.78 4.78–10.78 3.76–11.80 | 6.00 | 46% 14% 39% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.44–7.85 2.85–8.45 | 9.00 | 4.49 2.51–6.47 1.97–7.00 | 0.00 | 10.13 5.95–14.32 4.82–15.45 | 9.00 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 53.11 46.79–59.43 45.20–61.02 | 61.00 | 47.35 41.03–53.67 39.43–55.26 | 39.00 | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 431 366–496 348–514 | 584 | 391 327–456 309–474 | 395 | 823 693–953 658–988 | 979 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.30 71.08–79.51 69.78–80.81 | — | 75.66 71.15–80.16 69.82–81.50 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 8.14 5.28–11.00 4.40–11.88 | 8.00 | 9.75 6.80–12.69 5.89–13.61 | 10.00 | 17.89 12.09–23.69 10.28–25.49 | 18.00 | 31% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.16–2.58 0.00–2.93 | 2.00 | 1.28 0.12–2.45 0.00–2.78 | 0.00 | 2.66 0.29–5.03 0.00–5.71 | 2.00 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.32 0.26–2.37 0.00–2.65 | 1.00 | 1.83 0.71–2.95 0.42–3.24 | 0.00 | 3.15 0.97–5.32 0.41–5.88 | 1.00 | 28% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.88–4.71 1.49–5.10 | 1.00 | 3.23 1.68–4.78 1.25–5.22 | 5.00 | 6.53 3.56–9.49 2.74–10.32 | 6.00 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.