Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jeroen Manschot · Netherlands
Goals
17%
20%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.052.183.23safe0.09–2.011.32–3.041.41–5.05safer0.00–2.271.07–3.280.90–5.56actual1.005.006.00
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.176.0110.18safe2.31–6.024.31–7.726.62–13.74safer1.81–6.523.84–8.195.65–14.71actual4.0010.0014.00
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3916.3928.79safe8.69–16.1013.01–19.7721.71–35.87safer7.66–17.1312.08–20.7019.74–37.83actual8.0027.0035.00
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction7.5111.2118.72safe5.00–10.038.90–13.5113.90–23.54safer4.13–10.898.11–14.3012.24–25.20actual4.0024.0028.00
Blocked shots
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.014.437.44safe1.42–4.593.02–5.854.44–10.44safer0.89–5.132.53–6.333.42–11.46actual2.004.006.00
Corners
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.225.739.95safe2.01–6.423.75–7.715.76–14.13safer1.42–7.023.22–8.254.63–15.26actual3.0011.0014.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction36.6664.30safe30.35–42.9857.98–70.62safer28.75–44.5856.38–72.21actual34.0066.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction324575899safe259–389511–640769–1029safer241–407493–657734–1064actual332618950
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction77.1188.42safe72.90–81.3383.92–92.93safer71.60–82.6382.59–94.26
Fouls
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1610.5019.67safe6.31–12.027.56–13.4513.86–25.47safer5.42–12.916.64–14.3712.06–27.27actual5.0012.0017.00
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.443.17safe0.52–2.940.28–2.600.80–5.55safer0.18–3.290.00–2.940.12–6.22actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.713.70safe0.94–3.050.59–2.831.52–5.87safer0.66–3.320.30–3.120.96–6.44actual1.005.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.832.726.55safe2.41–5.241.17–4.273.58–9.51safer2.02–5.630.73–4.712.76–10.34actual5.003.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.09–2.01 0.00–2.27 | 1.00 | 2.18 1.32–3.04 1.07–3.28 | 5.00 | 3.23 1.41–5.05 0.90–5.56 | 6.00 | 17% 20% 63% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.02 1.81–6.52 | 4.00 | 6.01 4.31–7.72 3.84–8.19 | 10.00 | 10.18 6.62–13.74 5.65–14.71 | 14.00 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 12.39 8.69–16.10 7.66–17.13 | 8.00 | 16.39 13.01–19.77 12.08–20.70 | 27.00 | 28.79 21.71–35.87 19.74–37.83 | 35.00 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 5.00–10.03 4.13–10.89 | 4.00 | 11.21 8.90–13.51 8.11–14.30 | 24.00 | 18.72 13.90–23.54 12.24–25.20 | 28.00 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 3.01 1.42–4.59 0.89–5.13 | 2.00 | 4.43 3.02–5.85 2.53–6.33 | 4.00 | 7.44 4.44–10.44 3.42–11.46 | 6.00 | 24% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 4.22 2.01–6.42 1.42–7.02 | 3.00 | 5.73 3.75–7.71 3.22–8.25 | 11.00 | 9.95 5.76–14.13 4.63–15.26 | 14.00 | 26% 63% |
| Possession % | 36.66 30.35–42.98 28.75–44.58 | 34.00 | 64.30 57.98–70.62 56.38–72.21 | 66.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 324 259–389 241–407 | 332 | 575 511–640 493–657 | 618 | 899 769–1029 734–1064 | 950 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.11 72.90–81.33 71.60–82.63 | — | 88.42 83.92–92.93 82.59–94.26 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.16 6.31–12.02 5.42–12.91 | 5.00 | 10.50 7.56–13.45 6.64–14.37 | 12.00 | 19.67 13.86–25.47 12.06–27.27 | 17.00 | 34% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.18–3.29 | 2.00 | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.94 | 1.00 | 3.17 0.80–5.55 0.12–6.22 | 3.00 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.05 0.66–3.32 | 1.00 | 1.71 0.59–2.83 0.30–3.12 | 5.00 | 3.70 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.44 | 6.00 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.83 2.41–5.24 2.02–5.63 | 5.00 | 2.72 1.17–4.27 0.73–4.71 | 3.00 | 6.55 3.58–9.51 2.76–10.34 | 8.00 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.