Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk · Netherlands
Goals
64%
19%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.073.34safe1.30–3.230.21–1.931.51–5.16safer1.04–3.490.00–2.181.01–5.67actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.343.318.64safe3.48–7.191.60–5.015.08–12.21safer2.98–7.691.13–5.484.11–13.17actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction14.039.0023.04safe10.33–17.745.63–12.3815.95–30.12safer9.30–18.774.69–13.3113.99–32.08actual23.0012.0035.00
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction13.206.9220.12safe10.69–15.724.62–9.2215.30–24.94safer9.82–16.583.82–10.0113.64–26.60actual10.005.0015.00
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.043.048.08safe3.45–6.621.63–4.465.08–11.08safer2.92–7.151.14–4.944.06–12.10actual9.005.0014.00
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.303.779.07safe3.10–7.511.79–5.754.89–13.26safer2.50–8.101.26–6.293.76–14.39actual8.006.0014.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.5939.68safe53.28–65.9133.36–46.00safer51.68–67.5131.76–47.60actual63.0037.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction541352892safe475–606287–416762–1022safer458–623269–434727–1057actual551315866
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction85.2272.95safe81.00–89.4368.44–77.46safer79.70–90.7367.11–78.79
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8212.9223.74safe7.96–13.689.98–15.8717.94–29.54safer7.08–14.569.06–16.7816.13–31.35actual13.008.0021.00
Offsides
44%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.683.58safe0.69–3.110.52–2.841.21–5.96safer0.35–3.460.19–3.180.54–6.63actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.893.36safe0.42–2.530.77–3.011.19–5.54safer0.14–2.800.48–3.300.63–6.10actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
93%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.050.07safe0.00–0.180.00–0.240.00–0.42safer0.00–0.330.00–0.380.00–0.72actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.875.67safe1.39–4.221.32–4.422.70–8.64safer1.00–4.600.88–4.861.88–9.46actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.27 1.30–3.23 1.04–3.49 | 0.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 3.34 1.51–5.16 1.01–5.67 | 0.00 | 64% 19% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.34 3.48–7.19 2.98–7.69 | 6.00 | 3.31 1.60–5.01 1.13–5.48 | 2.00 | 8.64 5.08–12.21 4.11–13.17 | 8.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.03 10.33–17.74 9.30–18.77 | 23.00 | 9.00 5.63–12.38 4.69–13.31 | 12.00 | 23.04 15.95–30.12 13.99–32.08 | 35.00 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 13.20 10.69–15.72 9.82–16.58 | 10.00 | 6.92 4.62–9.22 3.82–10.01 | 5.00 | 20.12 15.30–24.94 13.64–26.60 | 15.00 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 5.04 3.45–6.62 2.92–7.15 | 9.00 | 3.04 1.63–4.46 1.14–4.94 | 5.00 | 8.08 5.08–11.08 4.06–12.10 | 14.00 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.10–7.51 2.50–8.10 | 8.00 | 3.77 1.79–5.75 1.26–6.29 | 6.00 | 9.07 4.89–13.26 3.76–14.39 | 14.00 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 59.59 53.28–65.91 51.68–67.51 | 63.00 | 39.68 33.36–46.00 31.76–47.60 | 37.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 541 475–606 458–623 | 551 | 352 287–416 269–434 | 315 | 892 762–1022 727–1057 | 866 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.22 81.00–89.43 79.70–90.73 | — | 72.95 68.44–77.46 67.11–78.79 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 10.82 7.96–13.68 7.08–14.56 | 13.00 | 12.92 9.98–15.87 9.06–16.78 | 8.00 | 23.74 17.94–29.54 16.13–31.35 | 21.00 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.46 | 0.00 | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.19–3.18 | 0.00 | 3.58 1.21–5.96 0.54–6.63 | 0.00 | 44% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.53 0.14–2.80 | 2.00 | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | 0.00 | 3.36 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.10 | 2.00 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.42 0.00–0.72 | 0.00 | 93% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.39–4.22 1.00–4.60 | 2.00 | 2.87 1.32–4.42 0.88–4.86 | 6.00 | 5.67 2.70–8.64 1.88–9.46 | 8.00 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.