Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sander van der Eijk · Netherlands
Goals
49%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.142.79safe0.69–2.610.28–2.000.97–4.61safer0.43–2.870.03–2.240.46–5.12actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.363.488.84safe3.50–7.221.78–5.195.28–12.41safer3.01–7.721.31–5.664.31–13.37actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6410.8527.49safe12.94–20.357.47–14.2320.41–34.58safer11.91–21.386.54–15.1618.45–36.54actual10.0012.0022.00
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.037.5317.56safe7.51–12.555.23–9.8312.74–22.37safer6.65–13.414.43–10.6311.08–24.04actual8.008.0016.00
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.117.48safe2.79–5.961.69–4.524.49–10.48safer2.26–6.501.21–5.013.46–11.50actual3.002.005.00
Corners
66%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.374.5410.91safe4.16–8.572.56–6.526.72–15.09safer3.57–9.172.02–7.055.59–16.22actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction53.3245.16safe47.01–59.6438.84–51.48safer45.41–61.2437.24–53.08actual56.0044.00
Passes
75%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction463382845safe398–528318–447715–975safer380–546300–464680–1010actual534435969
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction75.6769.94safe71.45–79.8965.43–74.45safer70.15–81.1964.10–75.78
Fouls
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7312.8421.57safe5.87–11.599.90–15.7915.77–27.37safer4.99–12.478.98–16.7113.97–29.18actual9.008.0017.00
Offsides
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.592.89safe0.09–2.510.42–2.750.51–5.26safer0.00–2.850.09–3.080.00–5.93actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.003.35safe0.30–2.410.88–3.121.18–5.53safer0.03–2.690.59–3.410.62–6.09actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
21%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.625.83safe0.80–3.632.06–5.172.87–8.80safer0.41–4.021.63–5.602.04–9.62actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.69–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.03–2.24 | 2.00 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.46–5.12 | 3.00 | 49% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.22 3.01–7.72 | 4.00 | 3.48 1.78–5.19 1.31–5.66 | 6.00 | 8.84 5.28–12.41 4.31–13.37 | 10.00 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.64 12.94–20.35 11.91–21.38 | 10.00 | 10.85 7.47–14.23 6.54–15.16 | 12.00 | 27.49 20.41–34.58 18.45–36.54 | 22.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.03 7.51–12.55 6.65–13.41 | 8.00 | 7.53 5.23–9.83 4.43–10.63 | 8.00 | 17.56 12.74–22.37 11.08–24.04 | 16.00 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.38 2.79–5.96 2.26–6.50 | 3.00 | 3.11 1.69–4.52 1.21–5.01 | 2.00 | 7.48 4.49–10.48 3.46–11.50 | 5.00 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 6.37 4.16–8.57 3.57–9.17 | 5.00 | 4.54 2.56–6.52 2.02–7.05 | 2.00 | 10.91 6.72–15.09 5.59–16.22 | 7.00 | 66% 24% |
| Possession % | 53.32 47.01–59.64 45.41–61.24 | 56.00 | 45.16 38.84–51.48 37.24–53.08 | 44.00 | — | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 463 398–528 380–546 | 534 | 382 318–447 300–464 | 435 | 845 715–975 680–1010 | 969 | 75% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.67 71.45–79.89 70.15–81.19 | — | 69.94 65.43–74.45 64.10–75.78 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 8.73 5.87–11.59 4.99–12.47 | 9.00 | 12.84 9.90–15.79 8.98–16.71 | 8.00 | 21.57 15.77–27.37 13.97–29.18 | 17.00 | 16% 78% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.09–2.51 0.00–2.85 | 1.00 | 1.59 0.42–2.75 0.09–3.08 | 2.00 | 2.89 0.51–5.26 0.00–5.93 | 3.00 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.30–2.41 0.03–2.69 | 2.00 | 2.00 0.88–3.12 0.59–3.41 | 0.00 | 3.35 1.18–5.53 0.62–6.09 | 2.00 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.80–3.63 0.41–4.02 | 4.00 | 3.62 2.06–5.17 1.63–5.60 | 3.00 | 5.83 2.87–8.80 2.04–9.62 | 7.00 | 21% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.