Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ingmar Oostrom · Netherlands
Goals
25%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.782.96safe0.22–2.140.92–2.631.13–4.78safer0.00–2.400.67–2.880.63–5.29actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.545.008.54safe1.68–5.393.30–6.714.98–12.11safer1.18–5.892.83–7.184.01–13.07actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4914.4524.94safe6.79–14.1911.07–17.8317.86–32.02safer5.75–15.2210.14–18.7615.89–33.98actual16.0010.0026.00
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.049.0416.08safe4.53–9.566.74–11.3411.26–20.90safer3.66–10.425.94–12.149.60–22.56actual11.005.0016.00
Blocked shots
30%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.846.80safe1.38–4.542.43–5.263.80–9.80safer0.84–5.081.94–5.742.78–10.82actual3.002.005.00
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.455.8910.34safe2.25–6.663.91–7.866.16–14.52safer1.65–7.253.37–8.405.02–15.66actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction45.3454.81safe39.02–51.6548.50–61.13safer37.42–53.2546.90–62.73actual37.0063.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction380437817safe314–445373–502687–947safer297–463355–519652–982actual257428685
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction79.0076.94safe74.79–83.2272.43–81.44safer73.48–84.5271.10–82.78
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6712.7425.42safe9.82–15.539.80–15.6919.62–31.22safer8.93–16.428.88–16.6117.81–33.02actual16.0018.0034.00
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.623.44safe0.61–3.030.46–2.781.07–5.81safer0.27–3.370.13–3.120.39–6.49actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.933.83safe0.85–2.960.81–3.051.65–6.00safer0.57–3.230.52–3.341.09–6.57actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.060.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.595.81safe1.80–4.631.04–4.152.84–8.78safer1.41–5.020.61–4.582.02–9.60actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 3.00 | 1.78 0.92–2.63 0.67–2.88 | 0.00 | 2.96 1.13–4.78 0.63–5.29 | 3.00 | 25% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.54 1.68–5.39 1.18–5.89 | 7.00 | 5.00 3.30–6.71 2.83–7.18 | 1.00 | 8.54 4.98–12.11 4.01–13.07 | 8.00 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 10.49 6.79–14.19 5.75–15.22 | 16.00 | 14.45 11.07–17.83 10.14–18.76 | 10.00 | 24.94 17.86–32.02 15.89–33.98 | 26.00 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 7.04 4.53–9.56 3.66–10.42 | 11.00 | 9.04 6.74–11.34 5.94–12.14 | 5.00 | 16.08 11.26–20.90 9.60–22.56 | 16.00 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.38–4.54 0.84–5.08 | 3.00 | 3.84 2.43–5.26 1.94–5.74 | 2.00 | 6.80 3.80–9.80 2.78–10.82 | 5.00 | 30% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 4.45 2.25–6.66 1.65–7.25 | 4.00 | 5.89 3.91–7.86 3.37–8.40 | 5.00 | 10.34 6.16–14.52 5.02–15.66 | 9.00 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 45.34 39.02–51.65 37.42–53.25 | 37.00 | 54.81 48.50–61.13 46.90–62.73 | 63.00 | — | — | 25% 70% |
| Passes | 380 314–445 297–463 | 257 | 437 373–502 355–519 | 428 | 817 687–947 652–982 | 685 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.00 74.79–83.22 73.48–84.52 | — | 76.94 72.43–81.44 71.10–82.78 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.82–15.53 8.93–16.42 | 16.00 | 12.74 9.80–15.69 8.88–16.61 | 18.00 | 25.42 19.62–31.22 17.81–33.02 | 34.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.27–3.37 | 2.00 | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.13–3.12 | 0.00 | 3.44 1.07–5.81 0.39–6.49 | 2.00 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.96 0.57–3.23 | 2.00 | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | 4.00 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.57 | 6.00 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.80–4.63 1.41–5.02 | 1.00 | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | 4.00 | 5.81 2.84–8.78 2.02–9.60 | 5.00 | 52% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.