Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Danny Makkelie · Netherlands
Goals
80%
homeawaytotalprediction2.880.783.66safe1.92–3.840.00–1.641.84–5.49safer1.66–4.100.00–1.891.33–5.99actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
95%
homeawaytotalprediction8.252.5210.77safe6.39–10.110.82–4.237.21–14.34safer5.90–10.610.35–4.706.24–15.31actual10.006.0016.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction22.157.3529.51safe18.45–25.863.97–10.7322.42–36.59safer17.42–26.893.04–11.6620.46–38.55actual28.0010.0038.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction15.275.7020.98safe12.76–17.793.40–8.0116.16–25.80safer11.89–18.652.61–8.8014.50–27.46actual17.008.0025.00
Blocked shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.162.128.28safe4.58–7.750.70–3.535.28–11.28safer4.04–8.280.22–4.024.26–12.30actual11.001.0012.00
Corners
94%
homeawaytotalprediction8.122.6910.81safe5.91–10.320.71–4.676.62–14.99safer5.32–10.920.17–5.215.49–16.12actual9.005.0014.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction61.1537.75safe54.83–67.4731.43–44.07safer53.24–69.0729.83–45.66actual76.0024.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction597356953safe531–662291–421823–1083safer514–680274–438788–1118actual7742381012
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction84.2574.98safe80.03–88.4670.47–79.49safer78.73–89.7669.14–80.82
Fouls
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1610.0118.17safe5.31–11.027.07–12.9612.37–23.98safer4.42–11.916.15–13.8710.57–25.78actual6.003.009.00
Offsides
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.272.68safe0.20–2.620.10–2.430.31–5.05safer0.00–2.970.00–2.760.00–5.73actual5.000.005.00
Yellow cards
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.951.872.82safe0.00–2.000.75–2.990.64–4.99safer0.00–2.270.46–3.280.08–5.56actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.090.12safe0.00–0.180.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.330.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
85%
homeawaytotalprediction1.684.816.49safe0.27–3.093.26–6.373.53–9.46safer0.00–3.482.83–6.802.70–10.28actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.88 1.92–3.84 1.66–4.10 | 4.00 | 0.78 0.00–1.64 0.00–1.89 | 1.00 | 3.66 1.84–5.49 1.33–5.99 | 5.00 | 80% |
| Shots on target | 8.25 6.39–10.11 5.90–10.61 | 10.00 | 2.52 0.82–4.23 0.35–4.70 | 6.00 | 10.77 7.21–14.34 6.24–15.31 | 16.00 | 95% |
| Total shots | 22.15 18.45–25.86 17.42–26.89 | 28.00 | 7.35 3.97–10.73 3.04–11.66 | 10.00 | 29.51 22.42–36.59 20.46–38.55 | 38.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 15.27 12.76–17.79 11.89–18.65 | 17.00 | 5.70 3.40–8.01 2.61–8.80 | 8.00 | 20.98 16.16–25.80 14.50–27.46 | 25.00 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 6.16 4.58–7.75 4.04–8.28 | 11.00 | 2.12 0.70–3.53 0.22–4.02 | 1.00 | 8.28 5.28–11.28 4.26–12.30 | 12.00 | 90% |
| Corners | 8.12 5.91–10.32 5.32–10.92 | 9.00 | 2.69 0.71–4.67 0.17–5.21 | 5.00 | 10.81 6.62–14.99 5.49–16.12 | 14.00 | 94% |
| Possession % | 61.15 54.83–67.47 53.24–69.07 | 76.00 | 37.75 31.43–44.07 29.83–45.66 | 24.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 597 531–662 514–680 | 774 | 356 291–421 274–438 | 238 | 953 823–1083 788–1118 | 1012 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.25 80.03–88.46 78.73–89.76 | — | 74.98 70.47–79.49 69.14–80.82 | — | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 8.16 5.31–11.02 4.42–11.91 | 6.00 | 10.01 7.07–12.96 6.15–13.87 | 3.00 | 18.17 12.37–23.98 10.57–25.78 | 9.00 | 29% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.20–2.62 0.00–2.97 | 5.00 | 1.27 0.10–2.43 0.00–2.76 | 0.00 | 2.68 0.31–5.05 0.00–5.73 | 5.00 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 0.95 0.00–2.00 0.00–2.27 | 1.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 1.00 | 2.82 0.64–4.99 0.08–5.56 | 2.00 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.68 0.27–3.09 0.00–3.48 | 4.00 | 4.81 3.26–6.37 2.83–6.80 | 6.00 | 6.49 3.53–9.46 2.70–10.28 | 10.00 | 85% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.