Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alex Bos · Netherlands
Goals
14%
18%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.002.383.38safe0.03–1.961.52–3.241.55–5.20safer0.00–2.221.27–3.481.05–5.71actual0.007.007.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.246.279.51safe1.38–5.104.56–7.985.95–13.07safer0.88–5.594.10–8.454.98–14.04actual3.0012.0015.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7317.7127.45safe6.03–13.4414.34–21.0920.37–34.53safer5.00–14.4713.41–22.0218.41–36.49actual6.0026.0032.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5512.0718.61safe4.03–9.069.77–14.3713.80–23.43safer3.17–9.938.97–15.1712.14–25.09actual0.0020.0020.00
Blocked shots
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.124.717.84safe1.54–4.703.30–6.134.84–10.83safer1.00–5.242.81–6.623.82–11.85actual0.005.005.00
Corners
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.736.5110.24safe1.52–5.944.54–8.496.06–14.43safer0.93–6.534.00–9.034.93–15.56actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction40.7759.32safe34.45–47.0953.00–65.64safer32.86–48.6851.40–67.23actual38.0062.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction335496831safe270–401431–560701–961safer252–418414–578666–996actual3816421023
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction70.0176.77safe65.80–74.2372.26–81.27safer64.49–75.5370.93–82.60
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2810.1921.47safe8.42–14.137.25–13.1415.66–27.27safer7.53–15.026.33–14.0513.86–29.07actual9.008.0017.00
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.323.13safe0.60–3.020.16–2.480.76–5.50safer0.26–3.360.00–2.810.08–6.18actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
40%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.693.43safe0.68–2.790.57–2.811.25–5.60safer0.41–3.060.28–3.100.69–6.16actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.912.466.37safe2.50–5.330.90–4.013.40–9.34safer2.11–5.720.47–4.442.58–10.16actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.22 | 0.00 | 2.38 1.52–3.24 1.27–3.48 | 7.00 | 3.38 1.55–5.20 1.05–5.71 | 7.00 | 14% 18% 68% |
| Shots on target | 3.24 1.38–5.10 0.88–5.59 | 3.00 | 6.27 4.56–7.98 4.10–8.45 | 12.00 | 9.51 5.95–13.07 4.98–14.04 | 15.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 9.73 6.03–13.44 5.00–14.47 | 6.00 | 17.71 14.34–21.09 13.41–22.02 | 26.00 | 27.45 20.37–34.53 18.41–36.49 | 32.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 6.55 4.03–9.06 3.17–9.93 | 0.00 | 12.07 9.77–14.37 8.97–15.17 | 20.00 | 18.61 13.80–23.43 12.14–25.09 | 20.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.54–4.70 1.00–5.24 | 0.00 | 4.71 3.30–6.13 2.81–6.62 | 5.00 | 7.84 4.84–10.83 3.82–11.85 | 5.00 | 22% 65% |
| Corners | 3.73 1.52–5.94 0.93–6.53 | 5.00 | 6.51 4.54–8.49 4.00–9.03 | 6.00 | 10.24 6.06–14.43 4.93–15.56 | 11.00 | 15% 76% |
| Possession % | 40.77 34.45–47.09 32.86–48.68 | 38.00 | 59.32 53.00–65.64 51.40–67.23 | 62.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 335 270–401 252–418 | 381 | 496 431–560 414–578 | 642 | 831 701–961 666–996 | 1023 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.01 65.80–74.23 64.49–75.53 | — | 76.77 72.26–81.27 70.93–82.60 | — | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.42–14.13 7.53–15.02 | 9.00 | 10.19 7.25–13.14 6.33–14.05 | 8.00 | 21.47 15.66–27.27 13.86–29.07 | 17.00 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.26–3.36 | 0.00 | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.81 | 0.00 | 3.13 0.76–5.50 0.08–6.18 | 0.00 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.68–2.79 0.41–3.06 | 0.00 | 1.69 0.57–2.81 0.28–3.10 | 0.00 | 3.43 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 0.00 | 40% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.91 2.50–5.33 2.11–5.72 | 4.00 | 2.46 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.44 | 3.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.34 2.58–10.16 | 7.00 | 65% 14% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.