Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Robin Hensgens · Netherlands
Goals
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.663.23safe0.61–2.530.80–2.521.41–5.05safer0.35–2.790.55–2.760.90–5.56actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.155.0310.17safe3.29–7.003.32–6.736.61–13.74safer2.79–7.502.85–7.205.64–14.71actual0.009.009.00
Total shots
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0114.3029.31safe11.30–18.7110.92–17.6822.22–36.39safer10.27–19.749.99–18.6120.26–38.35actual11.0023.0034.00
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.759.8819.63safe7.23–12.277.58–12.1814.81–24.45safer6.37–13.136.78–12.9813.15–26.11actual7.0014.0021.00
Blocked shots
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.388.58safe2.61–5.782.97–5.805.58–11.57safer2.08–6.312.48–6.284.56–12.59actual5.005.0010.00
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.455.4510.90safe3.25–7.663.47–7.436.72–15.09safer2.65–8.252.93–7.975.59–16.22actual3.006.009.00
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.6452.61safe41.32–53.9646.29–58.93safer39.72–55.5544.69–60.53actual47.0053.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction405463868safe340–470398–527738–998safer322–488380–545703–1033actual415473888
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction72.1673.85safe67.94–76.3769.34–78.36safer66.64–77.6768.01–79.69
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6411.9722.61safe7.79–13.509.02–14.9116.81–28.41safer6.90–14.398.10–15.8315.00–30.22actual11.009.0020.00
Offsides
38%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.503.02safe0.31–2.730.33–2.660.64–5.39safer0.00–3.070.00–2.990.00–6.06actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
31%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.903.43safe0.48–2.590.78–3.021.25–5.61safer0.20–2.860.49–3.310.69–6.17actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.196.72safe2.12–4.951.63–4.743.75–9.69safer1.73–5.341.20–5.172.93–10.51actual5.000.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.53 0.35–2.79 | 0.00 | 1.66 0.80–2.52 0.55–2.76 | 4.00 | 3.23 1.41–5.05 0.90–5.56 | 4.00 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.29–7.00 2.79–7.50 | 0.00 | 5.03 3.32–6.73 2.85–7.20 | 9.00 | 10.17 6.61–13.74 5.64–14.71 | 9.00 | 45% 42% |
| Total shots | 15.01 11.30–18.71 10.27–19.74 | 11.00 | 14.30 10.92–17.68 9.99–18.61 | 23.00 | 29.31 22.22–36.39 20.26–38.35 | 34.00 | 52% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.75 7.23–12.27 6.37–13.13 | 7.00 | 9.88 7.58–12.18 6.78–12.98 | 14.00 | 19.63 14.81–24.45 13.15–26.11 | 21.00 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.61–5.78 2.08–6.31 | 5.00 | 4.38 2.97–5.80 2.48–6.28 | 5.00 | 8.58 5.58–11.57 4.56–12.59 | 10.00 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.25–7.66 2.65–8.25 | 3.00 | 5.45 3.47–7.43 2.93–7.97 | 6.00 | 10.90 6.72–15.09 5.59–16.22 | 9.00 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.64 41.32–53.96 39.72–55.55 | 47.00 | 52.61 46.29–58.93 44.69–60.53 | 53.00 | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 405 340–470 322–488 | 415 | 463 398–527 380–545 | 473 | 868 738–998 703–1033 | 888 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.16 67.94–76.37 66.64–77.67 | — | 73.85 69.34–78.36 68.01–79.69 | — | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 10.64 7.79–13.50 6.90–14.39 | 11.00 | 11.97 9.02–14.91 8.10–15.83 | 9.00 | 22.61 16.81–28.41 15.00–30.22 | 20.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.07 | 2.00 | 1.50 0.33–2.66 0.00–2.99 | 0.00 | 3.02 0.64–5.39 0.00–6.06 | 2.00 | 38% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.59 0.20–2.86 | 2.00 | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | 0.00 | 3.43 1.25–5.61 0.69–6.17 | 2.00 | 31% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.53 2.12–4.95 1.73–5.34 | 5.00 | 3.19 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.17 | 0.00 | 6.72 3.75–9.69 2.93–10.51 | 5.00 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.