Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Allard Lindhout · Netherlands
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.562.81safe0.29–2.220.70–2.420.99–4.63safer0.03–2.480.45–2.660.48–5.14actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.196.0010.19safe2.33–6.054.29–7.716.63–13.75safer1.83–6.543.82–8.185.66–14.72actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
17%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9716.6628.63safe8.27–15.6713.28–20.0421.55–35.71safer7.24–16.7012.35–20.9719.59–37.67actual18.008.0026.00
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.699.5517.24safe5.17–10.207.25–11.8512.42–22.06safer4.31–11.076.46–12.6510.76–23.72actual14.006.0020.00
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.897.05safe1.58–4.752.47–5.304.06–10.05safer1.05–5.291.99–5.793.04–11.07actual7.005.0012.00
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.365.439.79safe2.15–6.563.46–7.415.61–13.97safer1.56–7.162.92–7.954.47–15.11actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.2650.98safe42.94–55.5744.66–57.30safer41.34–57.1743.06–58.89actual63.0037.00
Passes
46%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction409419828safe344–474355–484698–958safer326–492337–501663–993actual437279716
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction69.1370.21safe64.92–73.3565.70–74.72safer63.62–74.6564.37–76.05
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3811.6524.03safe9.53–15.248.70–14.5918.23–29.83safer8.64–16.127.78–15.5116.42–31.63actual22.0013.0035.00
Offsides
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.953.50safe0.34–2.760.79–3.111.13–5.88safer0.00–3.110.46–3.450.45–6.55actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.743.69safe0.89–3.010.62–2.861.52–5.87safer0.62–3.280.33–3.150.95–6.43actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.942.436.37safe2.52–5.350.88–3.993.40–9.34safer2.13–5.740.45–4.422.58–10.16actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.29–2.22 0.03–2.48 | 1.00 | 1.56 0.70–2.42 0.45–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 2.00 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.33–6.05 1.83–6.54 | 6.00 | 6.00 4.29–7.71 3.82–8.18 | 3.00 | 10.19 6.63–13.75 5.66–14.72 | 9.00 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.97 8.27–15.67 7.24–16.70 | 18.00 | 16.66 13.28–20.04 12.35–20.97 | 8.00 | 28.63 21.55–35.71 19.59–37.67 | 26.00 | 17% 78% |
| Shots in box | 7.69 5.17–10.20 4.31–11.07 | 14.00 | 9.55 7.25–11.85 6.46–12.65 | 6.00 | 17.24 12.42–22.06 10.76–23.72 | 20.00 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.58–4.75 1.05–5.29 | 7.00 | 3.89 2.47–5.30 1.99–5.79 | 5.00 | 7.05 4.06–10.05 3.04–11.07 | 12.00 | 32% 15% 53% |
| Corners | 4.36 2.15–6.56 1.56–7.16 | 6.00 | 5.43 3.46–7.41 2.92–7.95 | 3.00 | 9.79 5.61–13.97 4.47–15.11 | 9.00 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 49.26 42.94–55.57 41.34–57.17 | 63.00 | 50.98 44.66–57.30 43.06–58.89 | 37.00 | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 409 344–474 326–492 | 437 | 419 355–484 337–501 | 279 | 828 698–958 663–993 | 716 | 46% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.13 64.92–73.35 63.62–74.65 | — | 70.21 65.70–74.72 64.37–76.05 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.53–15.24 8.64–16.12 | 22.00 | 11.65 8.70–14.59 7.78–15.51 | 13.00 | 24.03 18.23–29.83 16.42–31.63 | 35.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.11 | 1.00 | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.46–3.45 | 2.00 | 3.50 1.13–5.88 0.45–6.55 | 3.00 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.89–3.01 0.62–3.28 | 2.00 | 1.74 0.62–2.86 0.33–3.15 | 2.00 | 3.69 1.52–5.87 0.95–6.43 | 4.00 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.94 2.52–5.35 2.13–5.74 | 2.00 | 2.43 0.88–3.99 0.45–4.42 | 5.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.34 2.58–10.16 | 7.00 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+