Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Martin Van den Kerkhof · Netherlands
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.760.922.68safe0.79–2.720.06–1.780.85–4.50safer0.53–2.980.00–2.030.35–5.01actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.973.149.11safe4.11–7.821.44–4.855.55–12.68safer3.61–8.320.97–5.324.58–13.64actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.729.4727.19safe14.01–21.426.09–12.8520.11–34.27safer12.98–22.455.16–13.7818.15–36.23actual17.009.0026.00
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.436.6417.07safe7.91–12.944.34–8.9412.25–21.89safer7.05–13.813.54–9.7410.59–23.55actual8.004.0012.00
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.752.907.65safe3.16–6.331.49–4.324.65–10.65safer2.63–6.861.00–4.813.63–11.67actual8.006.0014.00
Corners
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.824.1410.96safe4.61–9.022.16–6.126.77–15.14safer4.02–9.621.63–6.665.64–16.27actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction55.4843.75safe49.16–61.8037.43–50.07safer47.57–63.3935.84–51.67actual52.0048.00
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction463373836safe398–529308–437706–966safer380–546291–455671–1001actual495452947
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction71.4265.11safe67.20–75.6360.61–69.62safer65.90–76.9459.28–70.95
Fouls
20%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction8.0111.0919.09safe5.15–10.868.14–14.0313.29–24.90safer4.26–11.757.23–14.9511.49–26.70actual7.0011.0018.00
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.593.05safe0.25–2.670.43–2.750.67–5.42safer0.00–3.010.09–3.090.00–6.10actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.823.08safe0.20–2.310.70–2.940.90–5.26safer0.00–2.590.41–3.230.34–5.82actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.293.665.95safe0.87–3.702.11–5.222.98–8.92safer0.48–4.091.68–5.652.16–9.74actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.72 0.53–2.98 | 3.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.35–5.01 | 3.00 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.97 4.11–7.82 3.61–8.32 | 7.00 | 3.14 1.44–4.85 0.97–5.32 | 1.00 | 9.11 5.55–12.68 4.58–13.64 | 8.00 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 17.72 14.01–21.42 12.98–22.45 | 17.00 | 9.47 6.09–12.85 5.16–13.78 | 9.00 | 27.19 20.11–34.27 18.15–36.23 | 26.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.43 7.91–12.94 7.05–13.81 | 8.00 | 6.64 4.34–8.94 3.54–9.74 | 4.00 | 17.07 12.25–21.89 10.59–23.55 | 12.00 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 3.16–6.33 2.63–6.86 | 8.00 | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.00–4.81 | 6.00 | 7.65 4.65–10.65 3.63–11.67 | 14.00 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 6.82 4.61–9.02 4.02–9.62 | 5.00 | 4.14 2.16–6.12 1.63–6.66 | 6.00 | 10.96 6.77–15.14 5.64–16.27 | 11.00 | 75% 17% |
| Possession % | 55.48 49.16–61.80 47.57–63.39 | 52.00 | 43.75 37.43–50.07 35.84–51.67 | 48.00 | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 463 398–529 380–546 | 495 | 373 308–437 291–455 | 452 | 836 706–966 671–1001 | 947 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.42 67.20–75.63 65.90–76.94 | — | 65.11 60.61–69.62 59.28–70.95 | — | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 8.01 5.15–10.86 4.26–11.75 | 7.00 | 11.09 8.14–14.03 7.23–14.95 | 11.00 | 19.09 13.29–24.90 11.49–26.70 | 18.00 | 20% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.25–2.67 0.00–3.01 | 0.00 | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.09–3.09 | 0.00 | 3.05 0.67–5.42 0.00–6.10 | 0.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 0.20–2.31 0.00–2.59 | 0.00 | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | 2.00 | 3.08 0.90–5.26 0.34–5.82 | 2.00 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.87–3.70 0.48–4.09 | 1.00 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.65 | 4.00 | 5.95 2.98–8.92 2.16–9.74 | 5.00 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+