Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jannick van der Laan · Netherlands
Goals
68%
18%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.350.993.33safe1.38–3.310.13–1.851.51–5.16safer1.12–3.570.00–2.091.01–5.66actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.453.3810.83safe5.59–9.301.67–5.097.27–14.39safer5.09–9.801.20–5.566.30–15.36actual8.002.0010.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction19.568.7028.26safe15.86–23.265.32–12.0821.18–35.34safer14.83–24.294.39–13.0119.21–37.30actual33.004.0037.00
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction12.456.3918.83safe9.93–14.964.09–8.6914.02–23.65safer9.07–15.833.29–9.4912.36–25.31actual24.004.0028.00
Blocked shots
78%
homeawaytotalprediction4.922.367.27safe3.33–6.500.94–3.774.27–10.27safer2.80–7.040.46–4.263.25–11.29actual8.001.009.00
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.163.4210.58safe4.95–9.361.44–5.406.39–14.76safer4.36–9.960.90–5.935.26–15.89actual9.000.009.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction62.4037.92safe56.08–68.7231.61–44.24safer54.49–70.3230.01–45.84actual81.0019.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction605349954safe540–670285–414824–1084safer522–688267–431789–1119actual8201971017
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction79.8163.78safe75.59–84.0259.27–68.29safer74.29–85.3357.94–69.62
Fouls
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.569.4517.02safe4.71–10.426.51–12.4011.21–22.82safer3.82–11.315.59–13.319.41–24.62actual6.0012.0018.00
Offsides
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.883.63safe0.54–2.960.72–3.041.26–6.00safer0.20–3.310.38–3.370.58–6.68actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
24%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.772.90safe0.08–2.190.65–2.890.73–5.08safer0.00–2.460.36–3.180.17–5.64actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
15%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.234.276.50safe0.82–3.652.71–5.823.53–9.47safer0.43–4.032.28–6.252.71–10.29actual0.006.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.35 1.38–3.31 1.12–3.57 | 2.00 | 0.99 0.13–1.85 0.00–2.09 | 2.00 | 3.33 1.51–5.16 1.01–5.66 | 4.00 | 68% 18% 14% |
| Shots on target | 7.45 5.59–9.30 5.09–9.80 | 8.00 | 3.38 1.67–5.09 1.20–5.56 | 2.00 | 10.83 7.27–14.39 6.30–15.36 | 10.00 | 86% |
| Total shots | 19.56 15.86–23.26 14.83–24.29 | 33.00 | 8.70 5.32–12.08 4.39–13.01 | 4.00 | 28.26 21.18–35.34 19.21–37.30 | 37.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.45 9.93–14.96 9.07–15.83 | 24.00 | 6.39 4.09–8.69 3.29–9.49 | 4.00 | 18.83 14.02–23.65 12.36–25.31 | 28.00 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.92 3.33–6.50 2.80–7.04 | 8.00 | 2.36 0.94–3.77 0.46–4.26 | 1.00 | 7.27 4.27–10.27 3.25–11.29 | 9.00 | 78% |
| Corners | 7.16 4.95–9.36 4.36–9.96 | 9.00 | 3.42 1.44–5.40 0.90–5.93 | 0.00 | 10.58 6.39–14.76 5.26–15.89 | 9.00 | 84% |
| Possession % | 62.40 56.08–68.72 54.49–70.32 | 81.00 | 37.92 31.61–44.24 30.01–45.84 | 19.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 605 540–670 522–688 | 820 | 349 285–414 267–431 | 197 | 954 824–1084 789–1119 | 1017 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.81 75.59–84.02 74.29–85.33 | — | 63.78 59.27–68.29 57.94–69.62 | — | — | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 7.56 4.71–10.42 3.82–11.31 | 6.00 | 9.45 6.51–12.40 5.59–13.31 | 12.00 | 17.02 11.21–22.82 9.41–24.62 | 18.00 | 28% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.20–3.31 | 3.00 | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 0.00 | 3.63 1.26–6.00 0.58–6.68 | 3.00 | 37% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.14 0.08–2.19 0.00–2.46 | 1.00 | 1.77 0.65–2.89 0.36–3.18 | 2.00 | 2.90 0.73–5.08 0.17–5.64 | 3.00 | 24% 23% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.82–3.65 0.43–4.03 | 0.00 | 4.27 2.71–5.82 2.28–6.25 | 6.00 | 6.50 3.53–9.47 2.71–10.29 | 6.00 | 15% 73% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+