Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Dennis Higler · Netherlands
Goals
39%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.543.10safe0.60–2.530.68–2.401.28–4.93safer0.34–2.790.44–2.650.77–5.43actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.7510.46safe3.86–7.573.04–6.466.90–14.02safer3.36–8.072.57–6.935.93–14.99actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9014.0229.92safe12.20–19.6010.65–17.4022.84–37.01safer11.17–20.639.71–18.3320.88–38.97actual15.0017.0032.00
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.968.1418.10safe7.44–12.475.84–10.4413.28–22.91safer6.58–13.345.04–11.2411.62–24.58actual9.007.0016.00
Blocked shots
56%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.517.93safe2.83–6.002.10–4.934.93–10.92safer2.30–6.531.61–5.413.91–11.94actual6.003.009.00
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction6.125.2711.39safe3.91–8.333.29–7.247.20–15.57safer3.32–8.922.75–7.786.07–16.70actual5.003.008.00
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.1543.91safe49.83–62.4737.59–50.23safer48.24–64.0736.00–51.83actual46.0054.00
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction466345811safe401–532281–410682–941safer383–549263–427646–977actual446512958
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction68.5363.72safe64.32–72.7559.21–68.23safer63.02–74.0557.88–69.56
Fouls
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction10.879.6620.53safe8.01–13.726.72–12.6114.73–26.33safer7.12–14.615.80–13.5312.92–28.14actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.593.51safe0.71–3.130.43–2.761.14–5.88safer0.36–3.470.10–3.090.46–6.56actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.813.29safe0.43–2.540.69–2.931.12–5.47safer0.16–2.810.40–3.220.56–6.03actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.727.02safe1.88–4.712.17–5.284.05–9.99safer1.49–5.101.74–5.713.23–10.81actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.60–2.53 0.34–2.79 | 0.00 | 1.54 0.68–2.40 0.44–2.65 | 1.00 | 3.10 1.28–4.93 0.77–5.43 | 1.00 | 39% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.86–7.57 3.36–8.07 | 3.00 | 4.75 3.04–6.46 2.57–6.93 | 3.00 | 10.46 6.90–14.02 5.93–14.99 | 6.00 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.90 12.20–19.60 11.17–20.63 | 15.00 | 14.02 10.65–17.40 9.71–18.33 | 17.00 | 29.92 22.84–37.01 20.88–38.97 | 32.00 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.96 7.44–12.47 6.58–13.34 | 9.00 | 8.14 5.84–10.44 5.04–11.24 | 7.00 | 18.10 13.28–22.91 11.62–24.58 | 16.00 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.83–6.00 2.30–6.53 | 6.00 | 3.51 2.10–4.93 1.61–5.41 | 3.00 | 7.93 4.93–10.92 3.91–11.94 | 9.00 | 56% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.91–8.33 3.32–8.92 | 5.00 | 5.27 3.29–7.24 2.75–7.78 | 3.00 | 11.39 7.20–15.57 6.07–16.70 | 8.00 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 56.15 49.83–62.47 48.24–64.07 | 46.00 | 43.91 37.59–50.23 36.00–51.83 | 54.00 | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 466 401–532 383–549 | 446 | 345 281–410 263–427 | 512 | 811 682–941 646–977 | 958 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.53 64.32–72.75 63.02–74.05 | — | 63.72 59.21–68.23 57.88–69.56 | — | — | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 10.87 8.01–13.72 7.12–14.61 | 9.00 | 9.66 6.72–12.61 5.80–13.53 | 10.00 | 20.53 14.73–26.33 12.92–28.14 | 19.00 | 56% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.71–3.13 0.36–3.47 | 0.00 | 1.59 0.43–2.76 0.10–3.09 | 0.00 | 3.51 1.14–5.88 0.46–6.56 | 0.00 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.81 | 3.00 | 1.81 0.69–2.93 0.40–3.22 | 1.00 | 3.29 1.12–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 4.00 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.88–4.71 1.49–5.10 | 2.00 | 3.72 2.17–5.28 1.74–5.71 | 3.00 | 7.02 4.05–9.99 3.23–10.81 | 5.00 | 36% 15% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+