Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Joey Kooij · Netherlands
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.390.843.23safe1.43–3.350.00–1.701.40–5.05safer1.17–3.610.00–1.940.90–5.56actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.052.879.92safe5.19–8.901.16–4.586.36–13.48safer4.69–9.400.70–5.055.39–14.45actual12.002.0014.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.617.9527.56safe15.91–23.314.57–11.3320.48–34.64safer14.87–24.343.64–12.2618.52–36.61actual23.006.0029.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction12.945.9618.90safe10.42–15.453.66–8.2714.08–23.72safer9.56–16.322.87–9.0612.42–25.38actual20.002.0022.00
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.232.437.66safe3.64–6.811.01–3.844.66–10.65safer3.11–7.350.53–4.333.64–11.67actual4.002.006.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.673.6711.34safe5.47–9.881.69–5.657.16–15.53safer4.87–10.471.16–6.196.03–16.66actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction62.7637.13safe56.44–69.0830.81–43.45safer54.85–70.6729.21–45.05actual57.0043.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction599351950safe534–664287–416820–1080safer516–682269–434785–1115actual555427982
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction71.8862.31safe67.67–76.1057.80–66.82safer66.37–77.4056.47–68.15
Fouls
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6611.8419.50safe4.80–10.518.90–14.7913.70–25.30safer3.91–11.407.98–15.7011.89–27.10actual11.0023.0034.00
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.963.75safe0.58–3.000.79–3.121.37–6.12safer0.24–3.340.46–3.450.70–6.80actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.792.80safe0.00–2.070.67–2.910.63–4.98safer0.00–2.340.38–3.200.06–5.54actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.330.00–0.420.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
13%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction2.054.326.37safe0.64–3.472.76–5.873.40–9.34safer0.25–3.862.33–6.302.58–10.16actual1.007.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.39 1.43–3.35 1.17–3.61 | 5.00 | 0.84 0.00–1.70 0.00–1.94 | 0.00 | 3.23 1.40–5.05 0.90–5.56 | 5.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.05 5.19–8.90 4.69–9.40 | 12.00 | 2.87 1.16–4.58 0.70–5.05 | 2.00 | 9.92 6.36–13.48 5.39–14.45 | 14.00 | 88% |
| Total shots | 19.61 15.91–23.31 14.87–24.34 | 23.00 | 7.95 4.57–11.33 3.64–12.26 | 6.00 | 27.56 20.48–34.64 18.52–36.61 | 29.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 12.94 10.42–15.45 9.56–16.32 | 20.00 | 5.96 3.66–8.27 2.87–9.06 | 2.00 | 18.90 14.08–23.72 12.42–25.38 | 22.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 5.23 3.64–6.81 3.11–7.35 | 4.00 | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.53–4.33 | 2.00 | 7.66 4.66–10.65 3.64–11.67 | 6.00 | 80% |
| Corners | 7.67 5.47–9.88 4.87–10.47 | 6.00 | 3.67 1.69–5.65 1.16–6.19 | 3.00 | 11.34 7.16–15.53 6.03–16.66 | 9.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 62.76 56.44–69.08 54.85–70.67 | 57.00 | 37.13 30.81–43.45 29.21–45.05 | 43.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 599 534–664 516–682 | 555 | 351 287–416 269–434 | 427 | 950 820–1080 785–1115 | 982 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.88 67.67–76.10 66.37–77.40 | — | 62.31 57.80–66.82 56.47–68.15 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 7.66 4.80–10.51 3.91–11.40 | 11.00 | 11.84 8.90–14.79 7.98–15.70 | 23.00 | 19.50 13.70–25.30 11.89–27.10 | 34.00 | 14% 80% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.58–3.00 0.24–3.34 | 0.00 | 1.96 0.79–3.12 0.46–3.45 | 0.00 | 3.75 1.37–6.12 0.70–6.80 | 0.00 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.01 0.00–2.07 0.00–2.34 | 2.00 | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | 2.00 | 2.80 0.63–4.98 0.06–5.54 | 4.00 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.05 0.64–3.47 0.25–3.86 | 1.00 | 4.32 2.76–5.87 2.33–6.30 | 7.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.34 2.58–10.16 | 8.00 | 13% 76% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+