Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sander van der Eijk · Netherlands
Goals
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.560.813.37safe1.60–3.530.00–1.671.55–5.19safer1.34–3.790.00–1.911.04–5.70actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
93%
homeawaytotalprediction6.451.838.28safe4.60–8.310.12–3.534.71–11.84safer4.10–8.810.00–4.003.75–12.81actual8.001.009.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction17.145.9423.07safe13.44–20.842.56–9.3115.99–30.16safer12.40–21.871.63–10.2414.03–32.12actual17.004.0021.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction14.345.3019.64safe11.82–16.863.00–7.6014.83–24.46safer10.96–17.722.20–8.4013.17–26.12actual13.003.0016.00
Blocked shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.092.288.37safe4.51–7.670.87–3.705.38–11.37safer3.97–8.210.38–4.194.35–12.39actual4.001.005.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.382.749.13safe4.18–8.590.76–4.724.94–13.31safer3.58–9.190.23–5.263.81–14.44actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction68.3231.11safe62.01–74.6424.79–37.43safer60.41–76.2423.19–39.02actual62.0038.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction627306932safe561–692241–370802–1062safer544–709223–388767–1097actual586351937
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction85.8363.43safe81.61–90.0458.92–67.94safer80.31–91.3457.59–69.27
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0312.8523.89safe8.18–13.899.91–15.8018.09–29.69safer7.29–14.788.99–16.7216.28–31.49actual15.0012.0027.00
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.663.87safe1.00–3.420.49–2.821.50–6.24safer0.66–3.770.16–3.150.82–6.92actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.123.59safe0.41–2.521.00–3.241.41–5.76safer0.14–2.790.71–3.530.85–6.33actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
93%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.050.07safe0.00–0.180.00–0.240.00–0.41safer0.00–0.330.00–0.380.00–0.71actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.073.325.40safe0.66–3.491.77–4.882.43–8.37safer0.27–3.881.34–5.311.61–9.19actual1.007.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.56 1.60–3.53 1.34–3.79 | 1.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.91 | 0.00 | 3.37 1.55–5.19 1.04–5.70 | 1.00 | 75% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.45 4.60–8.31 4.10–8.81 | 8.00 | 1.83 0.12–3.53 0.00–4.00 | 1.00 | 8.28 4.71–11.84 3.75–12.81 | 9.00 | 93% |
| Total shots | 17.14 13.44–20.84 12.40–21.87 | 17.00 | 5.94 2.56–9.31 1.63–10.24 | 4.00 | 23.07 15.99–30.16 14.03–32.12 | 21.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 14.34 11.82–16.86 10.96–17.72 | 13.00 | 5.30 3.00–7.60 2.20–8.40 | 3.00 | 19.64 14.83–24.46 13.17–26.12 | 16.00 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 6.09 4.51–7.67 3.97–8.21 | 4.00 | 2.28 0.87–3.70 0.38–4.19 | 1.00 | 8.37 5.38–11.37 4.35–12.39 | 5.00 | 88% |
| Corners | 6.38 4.18–8.59 3.58–9.19 | 5.00 | 2.74 0.76–4.72 0.23–5.26 | 2.00 | 9.13 4.94–13.31 3.81–14.44 | 7.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 68.32 62.01–74.64 60.41–76.24 | 62.00 | 31.11 24.79–37.43 23.19–39.02 | 38.00 | — | — | 99% |
| Passes | 627 561–692 544–709 | 586 | 306 241–370 223–388 | 351 | 932 802–1062 767–1097 | 937 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.83 81.61–90.04 80.31–91.34 | — | 63.43 58.92–67.94 57.59–69.27 | — | — | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.18–13.89 7.29–14.78 | 15.00 | 12.85 9.91–15.80 8.99–16.72 | 12.00 | 23.89 18.09–29.69 16.28–31.49 | 27.00 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.00–3.42 0.66–3.77 | 0.00 | 1.66 0.49–2.82 0.16–3.15 | 4.00 | 3.87 1.50–6.24 0.82–6.92 | 4.00 | 51% 20% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.52 0.14–2.79 | 1.00 | 2.12 1.00–3.24 0.71–3.53 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.33 | 2.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.41 0.00–0.71 | 0.00 | 93% |
| GK saves | 2.07 0.66–3.49 0.27–3.88 | 1.00 | 3.32 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.31 | 7.00 | 5.40 2.43–8.37 1.61–9.19 | 8.00 | 22% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.