Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Martijn Vos · Netherlands
Goals
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.693.10safe0.46–2.380.83–2.551.28–4.93safer0.20–2.640.58–2.790.78–5.43actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.479.31safe2.99–6.702.76–6.175.75–12.88safer2.49–7.202.29–6.644.78–13.84actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2312.1527.38safe11.52–18.938.78–15.5320.30–34.46safer10.49–19.967.84–16.4618.34–36.42actual17.0014.0031.00
Shots in box
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction9.379.1918.56safe6.86–11.896.89–11.4913.75–23.38safer5.99–12.756.09–12.2912.08–25.04actual9.0011.0020.00
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.437.68safe2.67–5.842.01–4.844.68–10.68safer2.13–6.371.53–5.333.66–11.70actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.625.0310.65safe3.41–7.823.05–7.016.46–14.83safer2.82–8.422.51–7.545.33–15.96actual5.007.0012.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.5548.22safe47.23–59.8741.90–54.54safer45.63–61.4640.30–56.13actual46.0054.00
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction475434909safe409–540370–499779–1039safer392–557352–516744–1074actual387457844
Pass accuracy %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction74.4170.49safe70.20–78.6365.98–75.00safer68.89–79.9364.65–76.33
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8411.2522.09safe7.98–13.708.30–14.1916.29–27.89safer7.10–14.587.38–15.1114.48–29.69actual8.006.0014.00
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.043.65safe0.39–2.810.88–3.211.27–6.02safer0.05–3.160.55–3.540.60–6.69actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.803.80safe0.94–3.050.68–2.921.62–5.97safer0.67–3.320.39–3.211.06–6.53actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.915.59safe1.27–4.101.35–4.462.63–8.56safer0.88–4.490.92–4.891.81–9.38actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.38 0.20–2.64 | 1.00 | 1.69 0.83–2.55 0.58–2.79 | 1.00 | 3.10 1.28–4.93 0.78–5.43 | 2.00 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.70 2.49–7.20 | 5.00 | 4.47 2.76–6.17 2.29–6.64 | 6.00 | 9.31 5.75–12.88 4.78–13.84 | 11.00 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 15.23 11.52–18.93 10.49–19.96 | 17.00 | 12.15 8.78–15.53 7.84–16.46 | 14.00 | 27.38 20.30–34.46 18.34–36.42 | 31.00 | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.37 6.86–11.89 5.99–12.75 | 9.00 | 9.19 6.89–11.49 6.09–12.29 | 11.00 | 18.56 13.75–23.38 12.08–25.04 | 20.00 | 47% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 2.67–5.84 2.13–6.37 | 6.00 | 3.43 2.01–4.84 1.53–5.33 | 4.00 | 7.68 4.68–10.68 3.66–11.70 | 10.00 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.41–7.82 2.82–8.42 | 5.00 | 5.03 3.05–7.01 2.51–7.54 | 7.00 | 10.65 6.46–14.83 5.33–15.96 | 12.00 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 53.55 47.23–59.87 45.63–61.46 | 46.00 | 48.22 41.90–54.54 40.30–56.13 | 54.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 475 409–540 392–557 | 387 | 434 370–499 352–516 | 457 | 909 779–1039 744–1074 | 844 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.41 70.20–78.63 68.89–79.93 | — | 70.49 65.98–75.00 64.65–76.33 | — | — | — | 66% 29% |
| Fouls | 10.84 7.98–13.70 7.10–14.58 | 8.00 | 11.25 8.30–14.19 7.38–15.11 | 6.00 | 22.09 16.29–27.89 14.48–29.69 | 14.00 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.39–2.81 0.05–3.16 | 2.00 | 2.04 0.88–3.21 0.55–3.54 | 1.00 | 3.65 1.27–6.02 0.60–6.69 | 3.00 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.32 | 0.00 | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | 2.00 | 3.80 1.62–5.97 1.06–6.53 | 2.00 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | 5.00 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 4.00 | 5.59 2.63–8.56 1.81–9.38 | 9.00 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.